7603 Rincon Villa Ln · Florin, CA 95828

$84,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

810 sqft lot $105/sqft · 63% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Lindale Greens community, this 2nd-bedroom home features an inviting kitchen and living area accented by sleek laminate flooring. Outside, a private storage shed adds convenience, while the community land ownership provides access to a clubhouse and a refreshing swimming pool. It's a perfect, low-maintenance setup for anyone looking to enjoy shared neighborhood amenities in a quiet residential setting.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Private storage shed

Tags

• PRIVATE STORAGE SHED
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• SHARED NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,040 (land lease listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide)
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; BEND manufactured home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage shed(s); Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling and window unit(s)
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Porch; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anna Kirchgater Elementary (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #910 of 1,571 statewide, top 58%, 732 students, 61% FRL); James Rutter Middle (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 847 students, 65% FRL); Florin High (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #602 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,676 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Elk Grove Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.05%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,056
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 63.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7552 Red Bud Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+11%)	2mo	$47,000	$52	40
7706 Whispering Palms Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	720 (-11%)	8mo	$58,000	$81	37
7557 Huckleberry #59	0.67mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-11%)	23mo	$70,000	$97	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,382
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $94,378
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,030	-5% $1,001	+0% $972	+5% $942	+10% $913
Rent	-10% $816	-5% $894	+0% $972	+5% $1,050	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $1,014	-0.5pp $993	base $972	+0.5pp $950	+1.0pp $927

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7733 Robinette Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	45d	1	0.29mi
7639 Clover Woods Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,895	$1.84	45d	1	0.39mi
7614 Par Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	45d	1	0.43mi
6808 Wyndham Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,165	$2.92	0d	3	0.60mi
7575 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$1,950	$2.67	3d	5	0.68mi
6633 Valley Hi Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	809	$1,889	$2.33	5d	1	0.76mi
6465 Village Center Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	629	$1,670	$2.65	4d	9	0.81mi
5500 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,603	$1.87	9d	1	1.09mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	25d	1	1.11mi
7337 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	663	$1,775	$2.68	25d	3	1.17mi
7826 Center Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,795	$2.43	45d	1	1.18mi
7874 Golden Field Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,100	$2.07	16d	1	1.19mi
8180 Center Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,675	$2.09	3d	2	1.30mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,784	$2.23	0d	1	1.35mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	597	$1,525	$2.55	25d	1	1.35mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,891	$2.36	22d	1	1.35mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	597	$1,603	$2.69	5d	1	1.35mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,731	$2.16	19d	1	1.35mi
8236 Center Pkwy #59 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$1,725	$1.90	0d	1	1.36mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	777	$1,695	$2.18	0d	3	1.40mi
7640 W Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,282	$2.30	0d	12	1.44mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $84,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   status $84,900 Pending 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $84,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $10,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,631
• After-tax cash flow: $9,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $119 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.