Kofa Plan · Providence Village, TX 76227

$227,999

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily · 558 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

Key facts

• Large homesites
• Garage
• Listed 557 days

Tags

• LARGE HOMESITES
• CONVENIENT TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $227,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,076.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $173,348 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.10%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,076
• List price: $227,999
• Delta: -20.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9880 Walnut Hill Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	921 (-9%)	10mo	$233,000	$253	37
9839 Birch Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+14%)	13mo	$241,000	$210	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-90,106
• Equity at exit: $42,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-147,817
• Equity at exit: $24,735

Cash invested: $80,101 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,291/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $198,161

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,519
• Closing costs: $8,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	25d	1	0.29mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	44d	1	0.59mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	44d	1	0.62mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	7d	1	0.68mi
3160 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	44d	1	0.68mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	7d	1	0.69mi
3133 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	25d	1	0.70mi
9824 Birch Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,820	$1.46	44d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	22d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	25d	1	0.71mi
3040 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	19d	1	0.72mi
10200 Cedar Lake Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.77mi
1221 Bristol Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,950	$1.50	44d	1	0.80mi
10325 Baron Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,250	$1.69	44d	1	0.80mi
12112 Steeplechase Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1204	$1,690	$1.40	25d	1	0.87mi
4049 Criollo Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	44d	1	0.87mi
8978 Fair Oaks Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,095	$1.44	22d	1	0.92mi
2281 Obsidian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$3,000	$2.06	44d	1	0.94mi
12156 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,595	$1.34	44d	1	0.97mi
12132 Thoroughbred Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,835	$1.35	44d	1	0.98mi
12176 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	44d	1	1.00mi
12161 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	44d	1	1.00mi
12145 Falabella Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1202	$1,695	$1.41	44d	1	1.05mi
4217 Belmont Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1203	$1,695	$1.41	7d	1	1.05mi
1030 Farm to Market Road 2931 Unit 1101 Aubrey, TX	1.0	1.0	826	$999	$1.21	5d	1	1.06mi
1030 Farm to Market Road 2931 Unit 2102 Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,299	$1.11	5d	1	1.06mi
1031 FM 2931 Aubrey, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,679	$1.68	44d	1	1.06mi
2036 Oak Grove Ln Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1227	$2,334	$1.90	1d	10	1.08mi
26535 E University Dr Unit 03-112 Aubrey, TX	1.0	1.0	723	$1,015	$1.40	44d	1	1.21mi
26535 E University Dr Unit 03-111 Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,350	$1.15	25d	1	1.21mi
26535 E University Dr Unit 8111 Aubrey, TX	1.0	1.0	785	$1,049	$1.34	8d	1	1.21mi
26535 E University Dr Unit 8121 Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,367	$1.23	8d	1	1.21mi
26535 E University Dr Aubrey, TX	1.0	1.0	785	$1,050	$1.34	21d	1	1.21mi
26535 E University Dr Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,377	$1.23	25d	1	1.21mi
26493 E University Dr Aubrey, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1197	$1,321	$1.10	2d	36	1.36mi
1235 Acmite Ave Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,150	$1.48	8d	1	1.42mi
13109 Don Fisher Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,195	$1.55	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,999 Active 558 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,999 Active 557 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,999 Active 556 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,999 Active 555 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,999 Active 553 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,999 Active 552 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,999 Active 549 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,999 Active 548 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $227,999 Active 547 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,999 Active 544 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,999 Active 543 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,999 Active 542 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,999 Active 541 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,999 Active 540 DOM
15. 2025-02-08
    status Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

16. 2025-02-07
    historical 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

17. 2025-01-22
    price $227,999 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

18. 2025-01-14
    price $224,999 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

19. 2024-12-13
    price $219,999 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

20. 2024-12-06
    listed $225,999 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,025
• − Property taxes: −$4,291
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$8,322
• Taxable loss: −$12,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,023
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $224,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $219,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Listed $225,999 Zillow