4405 Redbird Dr · Brownwood, TX 76801

$163,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,059 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1985 8,146 sqft lot Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated 2 bedroom 1 bathroom featuring some new appliances and recently painted, one car garage home on cul-de-sac. This home is in a great area of town with schools and shopping close at hand, Great for a starter home, on one for those looking for more rental property to lease or couples looking to down-size in a quiet neighborhood. Fenced in back yard ready for pets, storage building, Must see to appreciate!

Key facts

• Cul de sac location
• Brand new roof
• Storage building

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CUL DE SAC LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, and VA Loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Covered parking (1 covered space); 2-car single door parking configuration
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Single story; Subdivision: Westridge Add Sec 4a
• Construction: Built in 1985; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Curbing; Asphalt access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; One level (single story)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Laundry in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Brownwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#781 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Brownwood ISD (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #344 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coggin El (math 45% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 79% FRL); Brownwood Middle (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 485 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 54% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 380 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,968
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4404 Westridge Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,011 (-4%)	8mo	$154,000	$152	82
4305 Mimosa Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,086 (+2%)	23mo	$150,000	$138	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,947
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,681
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76801

• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,899/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $304	+0% $258	+5% $212	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $187	+0% $258	+5% $329	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $299	base $258	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2411 13th St Brownwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,800	$1.23	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $163,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $163,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $163,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,899 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$84/yr (+$7/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$2,899
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$134
• After-tax cash flow: $2,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownwood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811700
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,395
• Composite: 35.8/100
• National rank: #4833
• State rank: #344 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownwood

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #14230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownwood, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,152

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.52%
• Current HPI: 164.0992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+181.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $163,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $162,500 NTREIS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-05-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-05-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2015-05-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-05-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2015-05-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-04-07 Listed $78,000 NTREIS
• 2006-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-02-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-11-29 Listed $57,900 NTREIS
• 1993-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,899 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.