161 Magnolia · Florin, CA 95828

$131,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $203k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright shiny NEW EVERYTHING! Rare 3 bedroom in a senior community. Ownership allows access to The Clubhouse, game room, library, pool, spa, and too many activities to list.

Key facts

• The clubhouse
• Spa
• Pool

Tags

• THE CLUBHOUSE
• GAME ROOM
• LIBRARY
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease listed separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Cable connected; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220 volts in kitchen; 220 volts in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park, double wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1979; Secluded lot
• Construction: Composition roof; Aluminum skirting; Bay Shore manufactured home
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Includes tub, tub with shower over, and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living and family room ceilings; Deck attached to the living area; Great room layout; Breakfast area off the kitchen; Laminate countertops in the kitchen; Covered deck; Carpeted porch/deck area; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $131k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $131k).
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Florin Elementary (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 494 students, 64% FRL); James Rutter Middle (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 847 students, 65% FRL); Florin High (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #602 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,676 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Elk Grove Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $906 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.44%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Gardenia	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$83	95
103 Dahlia Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$89,000	$64	88
115 Gardenia	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	86
8676 Beauxart Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$322,000	$224	80
7406 Pardis Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$121	79
7406 Pardis Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$121	79
97 Cantabrook St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$220,000	$141	76
12 Pina St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$75,000	$56	74
7430 Bouvais Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$225,000	$146	72
150 Security Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+7%)	6mo	$263,000	$171	70
66 Millbrook Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$205,000	$153	68
51 Millbrook Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$180,000	$144	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $38,600
• Equity at exit: $19,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $92,035
• Equity at exit: $11,326

Cash invested: $36,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $1,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $131,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,143	-5% $1,098	+0% $1,053	+5% $1,008	+10% $962
Rent	-10% $857	-5% $955	+0% $1,053	+5% $1,151	+10% $1,249
Rate	-1.0pp $1,119	-0.5pp $1,086	base $1,053	+0.5pp $1,019	+1.0pp $984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,750
• Closing costs: $3,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Maple Grove Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,195	$1.41	25d	1	0.45mi
8604 Maple Grove Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,195	$1.41	9d	1	0.45mi
8550 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,795	$2.31	0d	15	0.68mi
7756 Southbreeze Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,395	$1.84	4d	1	0.74mi
8620 Tiogawoods Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1137	$2,750	$2.42	9d	1	0.79mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	25d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $131,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $131,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $131,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $131,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $131,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $131,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 173-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $131,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,338
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − Depreciation: −$3,811
• Taxable income: $11,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $9,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B