121 Twin Oaks Rd · Spencer, TN 37367

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1983 0.62 ac lot $200/sqft · 12% above area Est $205k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY ADORABLE COTTAGE STYLE HOME ON . 62 ACRE LOT JUST OUTSIDE FALL CREEK FALLS STATE PARK! Completely updated 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home in unrestricted neighborhood means AirBnB , adding an additional tiny home, or raising chickens are all welcome! An open concept floorplan, new appliances, new metal roof, convenient laundry room and large backyard make this a perfect starter home for a growing family, down-sizing empty nesters or a short term rental for the robust tourist season. New paint, cabinets and floors throughout, fiber optic internet , a storage outbuilding and easy access to Tn's largest state park are few bonus features you can enjoy from day one! With several down payment assistance programs available home ownership may be more budget friendly than renting. Call today for a showing and chat with our preferred lender to see if this home works for you! Buyer should always verify information when making an offer.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New appliances
• Cottage style home

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• UNRESTRICTED NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW METAL ROOF
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Not attached to another building; 1,152 building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Storage building/structure; Wooded view; Cul-de-sac lot; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (2 bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 0% FRL); Van Buren Co High School (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #172 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 400 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $230k implies a 482% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,000
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 12.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Honeysuckle Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	1mo	$205,000	$155	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $154,170
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $431,382
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37367

• Home prices YoY: 34.5%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $612	-5% $533	+0% $453	+5% $374	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $351	+0% $453	+5% $555	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $512	base $453	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $230,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $230,000 Active 946-char remark
18. 2026-03-28
    listed $230,000 Active 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    MOVE IN READY ADORABLE COTTAGE STYLE HOME ON . 62 ACRE LOT JUST OUTSIDE FALL CREEK FALLS STATE PARK! Completely updated 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home in unrestricted neighborhood means AirBnB , adding an additional tiny home, or raising chickens are all welcome! An open concept floorplan, new appliances, new metal roof, convenient laundry room and large backyard make this a perfect starter home for a growing family, down-sizing empty nesters or a short term rental for the robust tourist season. New paint, cabinets and floors throughout, fiber optic internet , a storage outbuilding and easy access to Tn's largest state park are few bonus features you can enjoy from day one! With several down payment assistance programs available home ownership may be more budget friendly than renting. Call today for a showing and chat with our preferred lender to see if this home works for you! Buyer should always verify information when making an offer.

19. 2026-03-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Nestled less than a mile from the breathtaking Fall Creek Falls State Park, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is the perfect blend of modern comfort and outdoor charm. Whether you're looking for your first home or an excellent investment opportunity, this property offers endless possibilities—ideal for short-term rentals, long-term stays, or making it your own cozy retreat. Completely redone from top to bottom, this home boasts brand-new appliances, stylish finishes, and a fresh, inviting layout. Every detail has been carefully considered, from the updated kitchen with sleek countertops to the modern baths with contemporary fixtures. The spacious living area is filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout.Step outside to enjoy a private, well-maintained yard, complete with a shed for extra storage. The home’s proximity to the state park means you’ll have easy access to hiking, fishing, and exploring nature’s beauty.

20. 2026-03-18
    historical
21. 2025-09-19
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Nestled less than a mile from the breathtaking Fall Creek Falls State Park, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is the perfect blend of modern comfort and outdoor charm. Whether you're looking for your first home or an excellent investment opportunity, this property offers endless possibilities—ideal for short-term rentals, long-term stays, or making it your own cozy retreat. Completely redone from top to bottom, this home boasts brand-new appliances, stylish finishes, and a fresh, inviting layout. Every detail has been carefully considered, from the updated kitchen with sleek countertops to the modern baths with contemporary fixtures. The spacious living area is filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout.Step outside to enjoy a private, well-maintained yard, complete with a shed for extra storage. The home’s proximity to the state park means you’ll have easy access to hiking, fishing, and exploring nature’s beauty.

22. 2025-09-19
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Nestled less than a mile from the breathtaking Fall Creek Falls State Park, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is the perfect blend of modern comfort and outdoor charm. Whether you're looking for your first home or an excellent investment opportunity, this property offers endless possibilities—ideal for short-term rentals, long-term stays, or making it your own cozy retreat. Completely redone from top to bottom, this home boasts brand-new appliances, stylish finishes, and a fresh, inviting layout. Every detail has been carefully considered, from the updated kitchen with sleek countertops to the modern baths with contemporary fixtures. The spacious living area is filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout.Step outside to enjoy a private, well-maintained yard, complete with a shed for extra storage. The home’s proximity to the state park means you’ll have easy access to hiking, fishing, and exploring nature’s beauty.

23. 2007-05-21
    soldstatus $39,500
24. 2007-02-01
    listed $42,500
25. 2000-02-18
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $1,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$453
• After-tax cash flow: $4,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren County
• NCES district ID: 4704320
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,459
• Composite: 20.29/100
• National rank: #8617
• State rank: #96 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #10391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bledsoe · 11,736 people
• Population (ZIP): 11,736
• Household income: $54,696
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2.1

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,883 people
• By 2030: 5,925 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 5,877 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 5,706 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 5,162 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 4,450 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -20.4pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+61.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+20.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.44%
• Current HPI: 415.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+454.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $230,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $230,000 UCMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $240,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $240,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-21 Sold (MLS) $39,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2007-02-01 Listed $42,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2000-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $259 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.