2000 Camanche Rd #37 · Camanche North Shore, CA 95640

$149,800

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1970 4,356 sqft lot Est $145k · at est. ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning and fully renovated manufactured home situated on a spacious corner lot in the highly desirable Lake Camanche Village family park! This beautifully upgraded home offers both comfort and convenience, making it an ideal full-time residence or seasonal lake retreat. The home features fresh interior and exterior paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring, modern cabinetry, gorgeous quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and energy-efficient LED lighting throughout. Stay comfortable year-round with a new mini-split A/C and heating system, while enjoying partial lake views from inside the home and from the outdoor space. Located in a welcoming, nature-filled community with an abundance

Key facts

• Modern cabinetry
• Spacious corner lot
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• MODERN CABINETRY
• GORGEOUS QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT LED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,095 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 899% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,812 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,900
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Camanche Rd #37	0.00mi	2/1.5	900 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$161	99
2000 Camanche Rd #52	0.49mi	2/1.5	850 (-6%)	6mo	$110,000	$129	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,688
• Equity at exit: $22,336

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $27,688
• Equity at exit: $12,952

Cash invested: $41,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95640

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,247/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $149,800

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,450
• Closing costs: $4,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2011-08-14
   historical
2. 2011-03-16
   listed $15,000
3. 2010-08-18
   historical
4. 2009-12-02
   listed $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,247
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,358
• Taxable income: $1,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$476
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Camanche North Shore

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1095
• US rank: #25438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camanche North Shore, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,811

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.63%
• Current HPI: 169.9705
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-48.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2011-08-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-03-16 Listed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-12-02 Listed $29,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $76 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.