3415 Pilot Mill Dr · Greensboro, NC 27301

$314,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot Est $280k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Tired of searching for parking? Tired of not having enough space for all your things? Welcome home to this stunning end-unit townhome featuring a 2-car garage and an extended patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining! Inside, enjoy a beautifully designed kitchen, accent walls, large secondary bedrooms, and a luxurious owner’s suite with a tray ceiling. Offering the ideal blend of comfort, style, luxury, and low-maintenance living, this home is the perfect retreat—just minutes from I-40 and I-85 and ready for you to make it yours!

Key facts

• Garage
• Pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Mcconnell Ridge subdivision; Public maintained road access
• HOA & community: Part of the Greensboro association (HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric tankless water heater
• Home design: Townhouse, new construction (2026); Two levels; Stick/site built residential property; Built as new in 2026
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; Subdivision lot (subdivided); Lot dimensions approximately 29 x 75

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Gas cooktop; Ice maker; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with zoned heating and cooling; Natural gas available
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup and dryer connection; Electric tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alamance Elementary (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #147 of 1,410 statewide, top 11%, 516 students, 42% FRL); Southeast Guilford Middle (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 830 students, 57% FRL); Southeast Guilford High (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #287 of 535 statewide, top 54%, 1,273 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $169,528 (46.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.98%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,085
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Idol Mill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,807 (0%)	2mo	$284,990	$158	92
4562 Dillon Mill Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,807 (0%)	6mo	$304,990	$169	92
4555 Dillon Mill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,807 (0%)	4mo	$245,839	$136	91
3429 Pilot Mill Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	3mo	$239,990	$149	78
4558 Dillon Mill Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	1mo	$242,500	$150	77
3435 Pilot Mill Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	4mo	$222,124	$137	76
4560 Dillon Mill Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	3mo	$253,580	$157	76
4554 Dillon Mill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	3mo	$244,990	$152	76
4539 Dillon Mill Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	1mo	$239,990	$149	75
3425 Pilot Mill Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	7mo	$271,680	$168	75
2406 Idol Mill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	2mo	$249,990	$155	75
2404 Idol Mill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-11%)	4mo	$249,990	$155	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $138,688
• Equity at exit: $283,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $433,775
• Equity at exit: $611,956

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27301

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $833/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,345

Max offer price $224,319

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-335	-5% $-424	+0% $-513	+5% $-602	+10% $-692
Rent	-10% $-647	-5% $-580	+0% $-513	+5% $-446	+10% $-379
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-433	base $-513	+0.5pp $-595	+1.0pp $-678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $314,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,750/yr (+$146/mo · 209.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$833
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$12,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1335

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greensboro, NC
• City population: 329,421
• Population (ZIP): 10,897

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.75%
• Current HPI: 310.08
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $314,990 Triad MLS