119 Wilkes Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1949 4,080 sqft lot Est $185k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This property has that familiar Buffalo feel. It's sturdy, low-maintenance, and easy to appreciate. Two units offer plenty of space to work with and steady potential moving forward. It’s a practical pick for someone who values consistency and knows a good opportunity when they see it.

Key facts

• 4,080 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $511/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,401/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $150k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.22%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Wright Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,842 (+3%)	2mo	$120,000	$65	82
274 Newburgh Ave	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (-2%)	4mo	$185,000	$105	72
17 Proctor Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-2%)	8mo	$175,000	$100	69
358 Newburgh Ave	0.25mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,959 (+9%)	2mo	$165,000	$84	66
68 Marne Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,906 (+6%)	8mo	$165,000	$87	65
124 Newburgh Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-2%)	7mo	$95,000	$54	63
73 Easton Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+9%)	8mo	$206,000	$106	62
32 Courtland Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,011 (+12%)	4mo	$220,000	$109	56
73 Oakmont Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,616 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$133	53
144 Ivanhoe Rd	0.33mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,030 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$103	52
47 Weston Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,052 (+14%)	8mo	$230,000	$112	50
109 Newburgh Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,970 (+10%)	7mo	$140,000	$71	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $35,243
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $92,713
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $314/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $1,065	+0% $1,022	+5% $809	+10% $757
Rent	-10% $832	-5% $927	+0% $1,022	+5% $1,117	+10% $1,212
Rate	-1.0pp $1,098	-0.5pp $1,060	base $1,022	+0.5pp $983	+1.0pp $944

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,400
Total (2 units)			$2,401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	3d	1	0.74mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	16d	1	1.10mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	25d	1	1.20mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	1.36mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	21d	1	1.42mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	18d	1	1.43mi
47 Awood Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,500	$0.82	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-07
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2015-12-22
   soldstatus $43,000
4. 2007-01-29
   soldstatus $18,010

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,110/yr (+$92/mo · 353.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$314
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $10,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,492
• After-tax cash flow: $9,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+732.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $18,010 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.