126 Berea 6 · Jefferson, TX 75657

$18,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1920 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very quiet neighborhood. Property is right off of Old frame house in Berea Community of Jefferson, TX. House being sold as-is. Utilities on property already. HOUSE IS IN NEED OF REPAIR. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, washer/dryer area in hallway. Electric, water, and septic already on property. I am not sure if there is natural gas available there or not.

Key facts

• Old frame house
• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1920

Tags

• OLD FRAME HOUSE
• UTILITIES ON PROPERTY
• ELECTRIC WATER SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,124
• Exterior features: Property sits on a 0.34-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $567 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,616 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.89%
• DSCR: 8.69
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $45,526
• Equity at exit: $2,818

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.33×
• Total profit: $102,286
• Equity at exit: $1,634

Cash invested: $5,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75657

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$99
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $493/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $187

Max offer price $18,900

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,725
• Closing costs: $567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $18,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $18,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $18,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $18,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $18,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 360-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $18,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,059
• − Property taxes: −$493
• − Insurance: −$94
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$550
• Taxable income: $9,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $6,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,504
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7992
• State rank: #689 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,339 people
• By 2030: 8,881 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 8,044 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 7,449 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,638 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 5,871 · -37.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.4% · R 75.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+43.1 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.60%
• Current HPI: 126.2671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $18,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2001-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $493 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.