30 Starling Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$269,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1937 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Original bungalow nestled within the coveted Copake Lake community is a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath. With lake rights it offers endless fishing, kayaking, and waterfront living from the moment you arrive. Set on a private road just a 5-minute walk to the lakefront, the home sits on an oversized quadruple lot with mature trees, huge back deck overlooking an exceptional outdoor space, and seamless indoor/outdoor living — ready for a full summer of recreation. Inside, the 1,088 sq. ft. home features warm and inviting living spaces highlighted by a beautiful stone fireplace, a woodstove for added charm, and electric baseboard heat with individual room zones for comfort and efficiency. Rece

Key facts

• Private road
• Huge back deck
• Lake rights

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• PRIVATE ROAD
• OVERSIZED QUADRUPLE LOT
• HUGE BACK DECK
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 3 vehicles; Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Not waterfront; Frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor; Master bedroom located downstairs
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Original details; Master bedroom on main level; Storage; Walk-through kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Insulated windows; Finished attic with pull-down stairs; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $269k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $250,000 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $160,034
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $460,573
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,874/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $289	+0% $213	+5% $137	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $114	+0% $213	+5% $312	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $281	base $213	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Washington Dr Hillsdale, NY	2.0	1.0	832	$2,500	$3.00	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $269,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $269,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,874 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,710 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: +$836/yr (+$70/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,874
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$1,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+341.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,874 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.