2471 E Penedes Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$900,000

7 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2013 8,400 sqft lot $218/sqft · 13% above area Est $912k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Freeman Farms!! With 4,710 square feet of beautifully designed living space, this home combines comfort, functionality along with 2 primary suites to accommodate multi generational living or guests!. This home has one brand new AC and one that is a couple years old with transferable warranties. Step inside to find spacious open-concept living areas filled with natural light, elegant finishes, and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The chef's kitchen opens to generous dining and living spaces--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Large sliding glass doors lead to a private backyard retreat, ideal for relaxing or a side patio for more intimate gatherings. With seven true / spacious bedrooms, including, multiple walk in closets, and flex spaces, there is room for everyone! The shaded backyard is so nice along with the covered patio! Located in the desirable Freeman Farms community, residents enjoy access to HUGE grassy parks, scenic walking paths, basketball courts, a beautiful lake, and more--creating a vibrant, outdoor-friendly lifestyle. Gilbert Regional Park is just across the canal for sports, fishing and frequent entertainment! This is a rare opportunity to own a spacious, move-in-ready home in one of Gilbert's premier neighborhoods!

Key facts

• 8,400 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $900k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $620k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (44.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Arizona College Prep Middle School (math 88% / reading 87%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 744 students, 4% FRL); Dr. Camille Casteel High School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 3,140 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 25% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$131k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($873k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $565k; list at $900k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $499,807 (44.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $912,500
• List price: $900,000
• Delta: -1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2491 E Penedes Dr	0.02mi	6/4.5 (-1)	4,481 (+9%)	2mo	$912,500	$204	76
2443 E Ficus Way	0.34mi	6/3.5 (-1)	4,195 (+2%)	11mo	$900,000	$215	62
2460 E Crescent Way	0.58mi	6/4.0 (-1)	4,065 (-1%)	12mo	$907,000	$223	52
2484 E Lodgepole Dr	0.31mi	6/4.5 (-1)	4,648 (+13%)	13mo	$940,000	$202	46
2541 E Carob Dr	0.48mi	6/4.5 (-1)	4,648 (+13%)	9mo	$820,000	$176	42
16238 E Julius Rd	0.68mi	6/3.0 (-1)	4,015 (-3%)	22mo	$1,250,000	$311	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $297,109
• Equity at exit: $706,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $952,202
• Equity at exit: $1,423,452

Cash invested: $252,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,973/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-1,585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,005

Max offer price $619,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,076	-5% $-1,331	+0% $-1,585	+5% $-1,840	+10% $-2,095
Rent	-10% $-1,980	-5% $-1,783	+0% $-1,585	+5% $-1,388	+10% $-1,190
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,132	-0.5pp $-1,356	base $-1,585	+0.5pp $-1,818	+1.0pp $-2,056

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $225,000
• Closing costs: $27,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3355 E Indigo St Gilbert, AZ	6.0	5.0	4036	$6,900	$1.71	4d	1	1.26mi
3436 E Casa Mader Dr Gilbert, AZ	6.0	4.5	4120	$3,900	$0.95	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $900,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $900,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $900,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $900,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $900,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $920,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $920,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $920,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $920,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $920,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $920,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $920,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $920,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $920,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $920,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $920,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $920,000 Active 1273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1273 chars)

    Welcome to Freeman Farms!! With 4,710 square feet of beautifully designed living space, this home combines comfort, functionality along with 2 primary suites to accommodate multi generational living or guests!. This home has one brand new AC and one that is a couple years old with transferable warranties. Step inside to find spacious open-concept living areas filled with natural light, elegant finishes, and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The chef's kitchen opens to generous dining and living spaces--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Large sliding glass doors lead to a private backyard retreat, ideal for relaxing or a side patio for more intimate gatherings. With seven true / spacious bedrooms, including, multiple walk in closets, and flex spaces, there is room for everyone! The shaded backyard is so nice along with the covered patio! Located in the desirable Freeman Farms community, residents enjoy access to HUGE grassy parks, scenic walking paths, basketball courts, a beautiful lake, and more--creating a vibrant, outdoor-friendly lifestyle. Gilbert Regional Park is just across the canal for sports, fishing and frequent entertainment! This is a rare opportunity to own a spacious, move-in-ready home in one of Gilbert's premier neighborhoods!

18. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $565,000 Closed 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Gorgeous FORMER MODEL home in popular Gilbert neighborhood near planned 100 Million Dollar Regional Park! Every upgrade imaginable including gourmet kitchen w/ high end GE Monogram 6 burner gas stove, wall oven, upgraded raised panel cabinets, designer granite countertops & backsplash, large kitch island/breakfast bar, walk in pantry, & butlers pantry! 7 beds, 4.5 baths, a den, downstairs bed/bath, formal living/dining, HUGE LOFT with built in desk & tons of storage! Huge laundry rm with tons of cabinets! High ceilings & dual sliding doors allow for lots of natural light. Classy closet built ins in each room! Gorgeous landscaped yard! Extended patio! Amazing neighborhood with HUGE grassy parks, basketball courts, tot lots, a LAKE & more! Fantastic area in #1 school district in AZ! $122/SF

19. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $565,000

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Gorgeous FORMER MODEL home in popular Gilbert neighborhood near planned 100 Million Dollar Regional Park! Every upgrade imaginable including gourmet kitchen w/ high end GE Monogram 6 burner gas stove, wall oven, upgraded raised panel cabinets, designer granite countertops & backsplash, large kitch island/breakfast bar, walk in pantry, & butlers pantry! 7 beds, 4.5 baths, a den, downstairs bed/bath, formal living/dining, HUGE LOFT with built in desk & tons of storage! Huge laundry rm with tons of cabinets! High ceilings & dual sliding doors allow for lots of natural light. Classy closet built ins in each room! Gorgeous landscaped yard! Extended patio! Amazing neighborhood with HUGE grassy parks, basketball courts, tot lots, a LAKE & more! Fantastic area in #1 school district in AZ! $122/SF

20. 2019-01-31
    status Pending 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Gorgeous FORMER MODEL home in popular Gilbert neighborhood near planned 100 Million Dollar Regional Park! Every upgrade imaginable including gourmet kitchen w/ high end GE Monogram 6 burner gas stove, wall oven, upgraded raised panel cabinets, designer granite countertops & backsplash, large kitch island/breakfast bar, walk in pantry, & butlers pantry! 7 beds, 4.5 baths, a den, downstairs bed/bath, formal living/dining, HUGE LOFT with built in desk & tons of storage! Huge laundry rm with tons of cabinets! High ceilings & dual sliding doors allow for lots of natural light. Classy closet built ins in each room! Gorgeous landscaped yard! Extended patio! Amazing neighborhood with HUGE grassy parks, basketball courts, tot lots, a LAKE & more! Fantastic area in #1 school district in AZ! $122/SF

21. 2019-01-25
    listed $575,000 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Gorgeous FORMER MODEL home in popular Gilbert neighborhood near planned 100 Million Dollar Regional Park! Every upgrade imaginable including gourmet kitchen w/ high end GE Monogram 6 burner gas stove, wall oven, upgraded raised panel cabinets, designer granite countertops & backsplash, large kitch island/breakfast bar, walk in pantry, & butlers pantry! 7 beds, 4.5 baths, a den, downstairs bed/bath, formal living/dining, HUGE LOFT with built in desk & tons of storage! Huge laundry rm with tons of cabinets! High ceilings & dual sliding doors allow for lots of natural light. Classy closet built ins in each room! Gorgeous landscaped yard! Extended patio! Amazing neighborhood with HUGE grassy parks, basketball courts, tot lots, a LAKE & more! Fantastic area in #1 school district in AZ! $122/SF

22. 2018-09-30
    historical
23. 2018-08-09
    price $589,000
24. 2018-07-24
    price $600,000
25. 2018-05-04
    price $599,900
26. 2018-03-28
    price $619,500
27. 2018-02-11
    price $629,500
28. 2017-11-10
    listed $650,000 Active
29. 2013-10-15
    soldstatus $672,986 Closed
30. 2013-08-21
    status Pending
31. 2013-07-28
    listed $699,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,973 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,940 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,967/yr (+$164/mo · 49.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,414
• − Property taxes: −$3,973
• − Insurance: −$4,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,798
• − Management: −$4,798
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$26,182
• Taxable loss: −$35,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+31.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $920,000 ARMLS
• 2019-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $565,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) $565,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-01-25 Listed $575,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-08-09 Price Changed $589,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-24 Price Changed $600,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-04 Price Changed $599,900 ARMLS
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $619,500 ARMLS
• 2018-02-11 Price Changed $629,500 ARMLS
• 2017-11-10 Listed $650,000 ARMLS
• 2013-10-15 Sold (MLS) $672,986 ARMLS
• 2013-08-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-07-28 Listed $699,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+37.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,973 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.