4109 33rd St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1951 7,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1% Rule alert! Investor special near Texas Tech & the medical district! This home already has a lease in place through March 2027, making it a turnkey cash-flow opportunity from day one. Whether you're looking to add to your rental portfolio or secure a future home and offer cash-for-keys down the road, this property gives you options. Homes in this location with this kind of flexibility don't come around often.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rush El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 309 students, 72% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,250
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,217
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $227	+0% $187	+5% $147	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $131	+0% $187	+5% $243	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $223	base $187	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	14d	1	0.12mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	0.19mi
3813 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,295	$1.27	22d	1	0.24mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.26mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	0.28mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	22d	1	0.35mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.36mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.37mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.37mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.37mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.37mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.39mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.39mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	44d	1	0.42mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.47mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	0.48mi
3618 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	44d	1	0.48mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	22d	1	0.50mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	22d	1	0.50mi
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	14d	1	0.52mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	22d	1	0.52mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.53mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.54mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	22d	1	0.54mi
3813 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,400	$0.95	14d	1	0.56mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.58mi
3714 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	0.60mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.61mi
3505 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	14d	1	0.71mi
2501 Louisville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,099	$1.06	44d	1	0.71mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.72mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	44d	1	0.73mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.78mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	14d	1	0.81mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.83mi
3502 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	44d	1	0.83mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.83mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.83mi
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	22d	1	0.84mi
3409 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,250	$1.21	22d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $140,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $150,000
4. 2026-04-02
   listed $155,000 Active
5. 2024-12-21
   historical $1,450
6. 2024-11-12
   price $155,000
7. 2024-11-04
   listed $1,450
8. 2024-10-07
   price $157,000
9. 2024-08-30
   historical $1,300
10. 2024-08-28
    price $1,300
11. 2024-08-04
    price $1,400
12. 2024-07-03
    listed $1,475
13. 2024-06-15
    historical $1,500
14. 2024-06-11
    price $1,500
15. 2024-05-13
    listed $1,650
16. 2024-04-28
    historical $1,650
17. 2024-04-03
    price $1,650
18. 2024-01-16
    listed $1,700
19. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus
20. 2018-12-27
    soldstatus
21. 2018-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$6
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $2,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8135.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $150,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $155,000 LARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Rental Removed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $155,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed for Rent $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $157,000 LARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Rental Removed $1,300 LARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $1,300 LARMLS
• 2024-08-04 Price Changed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed for Rent $1,475 LARMLS
• 2024-06-15 Rental Removed $1,500 LARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $1,500 LARMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listed for Rent $1,650 LARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Rental Removed $1,650 LARMLS
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $1,650 LARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Listed for Rent $1,700 LARMLS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,746 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.