3143 Frontier Dr · Woodbury, MN 55129

$339,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2009 1,916 sqft lot $184/sqft · 14% below area Est $391k · 13% under $420/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this beautiful three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhome, located in the south east corner of Woodbury. Offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, the home impresses with soaring 12-foot ceilings, rich hardwood flooring, and stylish maple accents. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, gorgeous granite counter tops with ample space for all your cooking needs.Relax in the spacious living room, or retreat to the cozt gas fireplace in the family room. Including a spacious primary suite that offers peace and privacy. The two-car garage provides excellent storage and parking. With tasteful updates, modern features, and plenty of natural light, this townhome combines comfort and convenience in a prime location. Mortgage savings may be available for buyers of this listing.

Key facts

• South east corner
• Townhome
• Three bedroom

Tags

• THREE BEDROOM
• THREE BATHROOM
• TOWNHOME
• SOUTH EAST CORNER
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Woodbury — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,361 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.46%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,590
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -12.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-87,820
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-118,912
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,832/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,160

Max offer price $249,361

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3316 Hazel Trl Woodbury, MN	2.0	3.0	1622	$2,300	$1.42	10d	1	0.78mi
3775 Hazel Trl Unit H Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.5	1570	$2,125	$1.35	17d	1	0.96mi
3790 Hazel Trl Unit B Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1560	$2,395	$1.54	43d	1	1.02mi
11007 Oakgrove Cir Woodbury, MN	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,400	$1.31	43d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $339,900 Pending 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $339,900 Contingent - Inspection 87 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $339,900 Contingent - Inspection 86 DOM
4. 2026-05-05
   price $339,900 982-char remark

   Show marketing remark (982 chars)

   Step into this beautiful three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhome, located in the south east corner of Woodbury. Offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, the home impresses with soaring 12-foot ceilings, rich hardwood flooring, and stylish maple accents. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, gorgeous granite counter tops with ample space for all your cooking needs.Relax in the spacious living room, or retreat to the cozt gas fireplace in the family room. Including a spacious primary suite that offers peace and privacy. The two-car garage provides excellent storage and parking. With tasteful updates, modern features, and plenty of natural light, this townhome combines comfort and convenience in a prime location. Mortgage savings may be available for buyers of this listing.

5. 2026-03-31
   price $345,000 982-char remark

   Show marketing remark (982 chars)

   Step into this beautiful three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhome, located in the south east corner of Woodbury. Offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, the home impresses with soaring 12-foot ceilings, rich hardwood flooring, and stylish maple accents. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, gorgeous granite counter tops with ample space for all your cooking needs.Relax in the spacious living room, or retreat to the cozt gas fireplace in the family room. Including a spacious primary suite that offers peace and privacy. The two-car garage provides excellent storage and parking. With tasteful updates, modern features, and plenty of natural light, this townhome combines comfort and convenience in a prime location. Mortgage savings may be available for buyers of this listing.

6. 2026-03-06
   listed $355,000 Active 982-char remark

   Show marketing remark (982 chars)

   Step into this beautiful three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhome, located in the south east corner of Woodbury. Offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, the home impresses with soaring 12-foot ceilings, rich hardwood flooring, and stylish maple accents. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, gorgeous granite counter tops with ample space for all your cooking needs.Relax in the spacious living room, or retreat to the cozt gas fireplace in the family room. Including a spacious primary suite that offers peace and privacy. The two-car garage provides excellent storage and parking. With tasteful updates, modern features, and plenty of natural light, this townhome combines comfort and convenience in a prime location. Mortgage savings may be available for buyers of this listing.

7. 2026-01-26
   historical
8. 2025-11-17
   listed $344,999 Active
9. 2025-11-17
   historical
10. 2025-10-10
    price $349,999
11. 2025-09-09
    listed $355,000 Active
12. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus $314,900 Sold
13. 2021-11-27
    status Pending
14. 2021-11-03
    historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
15. 2021-10-29
    listed $314,900 Active
16. 2021-10-22
    price $314,900
17. 2021-10-22
    historical $309,900
18. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus $188,238
19. 2009-09-21
    historical
20. 2009-08-24
    listed $199,327

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,819 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$987/yr (+$82/mo · 53.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$1,832
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$12,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,923
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $345,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $355,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $344,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $349,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $355,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-21 Sold (MLS) $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-29 Listed $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Coming Soon $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) $188,238 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-24 Listed $199,327 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,832 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.