103 Baker St · Gainesville, MO 65655

$129,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1910 0.47 ac lot $149/sqft · 26% below area Est $175k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bed, 1.5 bath in Gainesville, MO is selling as a Fixer-Upper but most of the Fixin', especially on the 1st floor, is already complete: new flooring, windows, paint, and a new full bath with walk in shower. The 2nd floor has 2 rooms. One room is about ready to go, but the other room needs new flooring and ceiling installed. The HVAC system is newer and the metal roof is approximately 10 years old. This home is on city water and sewer, has a basement, and does come with a carport and chicken coop. All appliances stay with the home! It is in a nice location and within walking distance of the business district in Gainesville. This is a neat little home and the price is right. You don't need Chip and Joanne to finish this one for you!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New paint
• New full bath

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FULL BATH
• WALK IN SHOWER
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#856 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gainesville R-V (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #85 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,525 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,350
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -26.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,802
• Equity at exit: $78,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $72,992
• Equity at exit: $140,823

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65655

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $96,624

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-31
   status Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   This 2 bed, 1.5 bath in Gainesville, MO is selling as a Fixer-Upper but most of the Fixin', especially on the 1st floor, is already complete: new flooring, windows, paint, and a new full bath with walk in shower. The 2nd floor has 2 rooms. One room is about ready to go, but the other room needs new flooring and ceiling installed. The HVAC system is newer and the metal roof is approximately 10 years old. This home is on city water and sewer, has a basement, and does come with a carport and chicken coop. All appliances stay with the home! It is in a nice location and within walking distance of the business district in Gainesville. This is a neat little home and the price is right. You don't need Chip and Joanne to finish this one for you!

2. 2025-08-14
   status Pending 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   This 2 bed, 1.5 bath in Gainesville, MO is selling as a Fixer-Upper but most of the Fixin', especially on the 1st floor, is already complete: new flooring, windows, paint, and a new full bath with walk in shower. The 2nd floor has 2 rooms. One room is about ready to go, but the other room needs new flooring and ceiling installed. The HVAC system is newer and the metal roof is approximately 10 years old. This home is on city water and sewer, has a basement, and does come with a carport and chicken coop. All appliances stay with the home! It is in a nice location and within walking distance of the business district in Gainesville. This is a neat little home and the price is right. You don't need Chip and Joanne to finish this one for you!

3. 2025-08-07
   listed $129,000 Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   This 2 bed, 1.5 bath in Gainesville, MO is selling as a Fixer-Upper but most of the Fixin', especially on the 1st floor, is already complete: new flooring, windows, paint, and a new full bath with walk in shower. The 2nd floor has 2 rooms. One room is about ready to go, but the other room needs new flooring and ceiling installed. The HVAC system is newer and the metal roof is approximately 10 years old. This home is on city water and sewer, has a basement, and does come with a carport and chicken coop. All appliances stay with the home! It is in a nice location and within walking distance of the business district in Gainesville. This is a neat little home and the price is right. You don't need Chip and Joanne to finish this one for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$811
• − Management: −$811
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$5,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gainesville R-V
• NCES district ID: 2912600
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,957
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4078
• State rank: #85 of 324 in MO

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #24933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, MO
• City population: 2,313
• Population (ZIP): 2,313

Population outlook (Ozark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,561 people
• By 2030: 8,040 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 7,069 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,310 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,095 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 4,112 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Ozark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.6% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.2pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Current HPI: 200.776
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-08-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-08-07 Listed $129,000 SOMO