5944 Clayton Ave · Overlea, MD 21206

$251,600

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1932 10,650 sqft lot $173/sqft · 22% below area Est $323k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1932 featuring 4 bedrooms and 1.1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * No showings, No access provided. Drive by only. Property is lender-owned, being sold “as-is”, the seller is making no representations or warranties.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1932
• Listed 279 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.4% in Overlea — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#38 in MD, #1,418 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,462/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2317% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,408 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,257
• List price: $251,600
• Delta: -22.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6008 Eurith Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,492 (+2%)	6mo	$235,000	$158	63
524 Elmwood Rd	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,650 (+13%)	1mo	$319,000	$193	53
4502 Parkmont Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,642 (+13%)	4mo	$325,000	$198	51
713 Dale Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,304 (-10%)	6mo	$371,000	$285	51
4614 White Ave	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,370 (-6%)	9mo	$275,000	$201	51
4412 Springwood Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,624 (+12%)	3mo	$295,000	$182	48
4806 Hazelwood Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5	1,658 (+14%)	1mo	$222,000	$134	47
4103 Glenmore Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,666 (+14%)	1mo	$280,000	$168	40
4207 Parkmont Ave	0.72mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+12%)	2mo	$252,500	$155	39
4313 Forest View Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (-15%)	5mo	$172,000	$138	38
4603-H Kenwood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,624 (+12%)	7mo	$187,000	$115	37
107 E Overlea Ave E	0.65mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+13%)	9mo	$305,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-27,937
• Equity at exit: $37,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,962
• Equity at exit: $21,754

Cash invested: $70,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,319
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,526/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,280

Max offer price $251,600

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $215	+0% $144	+5% $73	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $47	+0% $144	+5% $241	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $208	base $144	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,900
• Closing costs: $7,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5938 Clayton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	17d	1	0.04mi
5110 Kenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1406	$2,500	$1.78	44d	1	0.83mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	44d	1	0.86mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.87mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,550	$1.80	3d	5	0.87mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.87mi
8133 Bartholomew Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	24d	1	0.88mi
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.88mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	44d	1	0.93mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	937	$1,550	$1.65	5d	1	0.96mi
100 Elinor Ave Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,800	$1.56	24d	1	1.00mi
101 Elinor Ave Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,900	$1.96	44d	1	1.00mi
6042 Barstow Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	736	$1,527	$2.07	3d	1	1.04mi
1732 Chesaco Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,295	$1.82	44d	1	1.19mi
5 Belhaven Dr Nottingham, MD	4.0	1.5	1554	$2,000	$1.29	44d	1	1.21mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	1.25mi
8212 Dorset Ave Rosedale, MD	4.0	1.5	1479	$2,250	$1.52	44d	1	1.30mi
5248 Darien Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1584	$2,100	$1.33	44d	1	1.32mi
5253 Cedgate Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.33mi
32 Tameron Pl Rosedale, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	2d	1	1.34mi
3412 Fleetwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,195	$1.35	44d	1	1.35mi
6512 Golden Ring Rd Rosedale, MD	4.0	3.0	1089	$2,800	$2.57	17d	1	1.35mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	17d	1	1.44mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,600 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,600 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,600 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,600 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,600 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,600 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,600 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $251,600 Active 268 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $251,600 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,600 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,600 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,600 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,600 Active 261 DOM
14. 2025-09-12
    listed $251,600 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1932 featuring 4 bedrooms and 1.1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * No showings, No access provided. Drive by only. Property is lender-owned, being sold “as-is”, the seller is making no representations or warranties.

15. 2018-09-17
    soldstatus $195,000
16. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

17. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

18. 2018-07-14
    historical Active Under Contract 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

19. 2018-07-14
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

20. 2018-06-08
    listed $199,999 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

21. 2018-06-08
    listed $199,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows! Awesome 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, neutral decor, separate dinning area, new roof & siding, living area carpet, ceramic and vinyl floors throughout home, 9' ceilings, spacious kitchen cabinets, level fenced yard, seller purchasing AHS Warranty, home selling as-is, schedule your tour today!!!

22. 1976-12-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,526 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,526 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,094
• − Property taxes: −$4,526
• − Insurance: −$1,258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$7,319
• Taxable loss: −$2,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$570
• After-tax cash flow: $2,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Overlea

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1418

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Overlea, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+993.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Listed $251,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MRIS
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-14 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-06-08 Listed $199,999 MRIS
• 2018-06-08 Listed $199,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 1976-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,526 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.