85 Gasparilla Pass · Winter Haven, FL 33880

$45,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 260 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FOR SALE BY OWNER - DIAL 952-200-1220 Motivated Seller Best Offer! Address: 85 Gasparilla Pass, Winter Haven, FL 33880 This home is priced to move! The homeowner is motivated and ready to consider the best offer. Dont miss your opportunity to own a property in beautiful Winter Haven, known for its chain of lakes and welcoming community. Motivated Seller Bring All Offers Great Location in Winter Haven Ready for New Owners Contact today to schedule your showing this deal wont last long! * * Charming Home with Lake Access - Your Florida Dream Awaits! * * Step into this beautifully maintained, inviting home nestled within the serene Shipp-Reck Harbor Mobile Home 55+ Community,

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Lake access
• Open-concept living

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $315 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.57%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $43,666
• Equity at exit: $6,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.98×
• Total profit: $101,705
• Equity at exit: $3,934

Cash invested: $12,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $398

Max offer price $45,500

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,375
• Closing costs: $1,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Landings Way Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,385	$1.88	3d	9	0.12mi
1860 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	995	$1,199	$1.21	19d	1	0.31mi
1870 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,199	$1.25	3d	1	0.31mi
1874 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	995	$1,250	$1.26	3d	1	0.31mi
1935 Avenue O SW Unit 201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,400	$1.38	19d	1	0.48mi
1304 15th St SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	23d	1	0.70mi
310 Mayfair Pl SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,525	$1.23	23d	1	0.81mi
521 20th St SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	732	$1,175	$1.61	3d	1	1.02mi
547 Snively Ave Eloise, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$600	$0.55	23d	1	1.09mi
1300 S Lake Howard Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1464	$1,788	$1.22	10d	20	1.17mi
Deena Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	840	$1,225	$1.46	23d	1	1.25mi
2200 Clover Ridge Ct Eagle Lake, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	764	$1,350	$1.77	3d	4	1.27mi
265 25th St SW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	23d	1	1.38mi
2214 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	23d	1	1.41mi
2416 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,000	$1.46	23d	1	1.42mi
2025 San Marcos Dr SE #27 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	792	$1,200	$1.52	14d	1	1.44mi
2001 San Marcos Dr SE #11 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,500 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,500 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,500 Active 258 DOM
4. 2025-09-15
   listed $45,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,549
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$1,324
• Taxable income: $9,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,304
• After-tax cash flow: $7,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Listed $45,500 ForSaleByOwner.com