2916 Hearts Trl · Heartland, TX 75114

$205,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2025 4,617 sqft lot $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Eastland - Idlewood Floorplan -This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $195,705 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,403
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,375
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $205,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $231	+0% $172	+5% $114	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $95	+0% $172	+5% $250	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $225	base $172	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.05mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	45d	1	0.14mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,740	$1.43	0d	1	0.16mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	0.18mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	0.18mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.21mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	26d	1	0.21mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	4d	1	0.23mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	3d	1	0.30mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	26d	1	0.33mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	4d	1	0.36mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	26d	1	0.37mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,769	$1.06	0d	1	0.37mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.37mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	0d	1	0.38mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	0.40mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	0.41mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	45d	1	0.55mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.57mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	0.58mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.60mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.62mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.63mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	0.63mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.65mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.65mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.66mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.67mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.69mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	45d	1	0.69mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.70mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	3d	1	0.74mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	4d	1	0.74mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	45d	1	0.75mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	26d	1	0.75mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	26d	1	0.76mi
2127 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	45d	1	0.86mi
4152 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,925	$1.52	26d	1	0.88mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	45d	1	0.89mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	8d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $205,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,770 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,855/yr (+$155/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable loss: −$1,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$318
• After-tax cash flow: $2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $205,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.