2528 County Road 531 · Burleson, TX 76028

$213,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1982 2.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5-26-26 we have an accepted offer. Status will change once contract is executed. Great 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with a fireplace and large kitchen located in a quiet area of the country but still close enough to just about everything. It gas approx 2.5 acres of land with a 1 car detached garage and several large storage buildings. It would make a great retirement home or rental property just bring your imagination. The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 2.53 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential manufactured home; Lot approximately 2.534 acres (will not subdivide)
• Financial info: Listing accepted for cash or conventional financing; Property listed as real estate owned
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Garage that faces front; 1-car garage (approx. 11' wide x 20' long)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system; Septic; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level
• Construction: Siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1982
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Exterior storage; Wire fencing; Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, separate vanities, and walk-in closet; Other bedrooms arranged in a split-bedroom plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with dual sinks, garden tub, and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Window coverings; Fireplace (wood-burning)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Stribling El (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 476 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,421 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,586
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-30,184
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,437/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,889

Max offer price $213,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $213,000 Active
2. 1998-10-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,437 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,898 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$3,437
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$2,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $1,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $213,000 NTREIS
• 1998-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,437 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.