Package Property · Lubbock, TX 79406

$346,000

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,272 sqft · MultiFamily · 470 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition 0.70 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $346k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $213/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $346k).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $97k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.54%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $95,945
• Equity at exit: $155,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $265,732
• Equity at exit: $239,762

Cash invested: $96,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79406

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 28.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,190/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,027

Max offer price $346,000

Occupancy floor 74%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$4,104
Total (4 units)			$4,104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,500
• Closing costs: $10,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $346,000 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $346,000 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $346,000 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $346,000 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $346,000 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $346,000 Active 464 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $346,000 Active 462 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $346,000 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $346,000 Active 460 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $346,000 Active 459 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $346,000 Active 456 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $346,000 Active 455 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $346,000 Active 454 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $346,000 Active 453 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $346,000 Active 452 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $346,000 Active 451 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $346,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

18. 2026-01-18
    price $431,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

19. 2025-09-12
    status Active 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

20. 2025-09-01
    historical 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

21. 2025-02-22
    listed $414,000 Active 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Package of 4 properties for sale, 3 out of the 4 are currently leased.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,381
• − Property taxes: −$5,190
• − Insurance: −$1,730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,940
• − Management: −$3,940
• − Depreciation: −$10,065
• Taxable income: $5,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $9,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed for curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor landscaping — overgrown grass needs trimming
• Minor exterior paint — slight discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
landscaping · overgrown grass needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior paint · slight discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• City population: 283,030
• Population (ZIP): 7,738

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $346,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $431,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed $414,000 LARMLS