131 Dockey Rd · Little Falls, NY 13365

$139,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 5,472 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking at 131 Dockey Road in Little Falls—a standout property loaded with potential and ready for its next chapter. Formerly operated as a neighborhood bar, this property offers the kind of character, layout, and visibility that’s increasingly hard to find. Whether you’re an investor, entrepreneur, or visionary owner-user, this is your chance to bring a once-thriving establishment back to life or reimagine it entirely. The main level features a spacious commercial layout that was previously set up for bar and restaurant use, offering an open footprint that can be tailored to a variety of business ventures—bar, restaurant, event space, retail, or mixe

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story existing home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular, rural lot (1.5 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms including living space
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating using electric and gas
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Has heating (electric and gas, forced air)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#440 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Falls City School District (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #492 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $87,251
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.34×
• Total profit: $248,305
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13365

• Home prices YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $139,900 Active 1429-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Immediate focus should be on the roof, exterior siding, flooring, HVAC system, and landscaping to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major flooring — Worn and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC system — Old and in need of replacement.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in need of improvement to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Fixes the most critical issue and improves both resale and rental value.
• Both exterior siding and painting — Enhances curb appeal and improves the home's overall appearance.
• Both flooring replacement — Improves the home's condition and makes it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and makes it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of wear and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in need of improvement to enhance curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Fixes the most critical issue and improves both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior siding and painting — Enhances curb appeal and improves the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves the home's condition and makes it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and makes it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,445
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4724
• State rank: #492 of 590 in NY

Livability — Little Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #7681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,545

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.04%
• Current HPI: 300.9696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $139,900 CNYIS