11217 Hazel Dr · Mill Creek, PA 16652

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1958 0.29 ac lot $134/sqft · 29% below area Est $149k · 40% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect blend of riverfront tranquility and mountain views in this charming Ardenheim Village cottage. Designed for those who appreciate the outdoors, the home features a spacious screened-in porch—ideal for taking in the expansive mountain range, the rhythmic sounds of the Juniata River, and the sight of local eagles soaring over the open fields. The main level offers a convenient bedroom and full bath, while the lofted upstairs provides versatile space for additional sleeping accommodations or storage. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a project to make your own, this property offers a rare opportunity to create a custom lifestyle in a truly picturesque

Key facts

• Versatile space
• Screened-in porch
• Juniata river

Tags

• RIVERFRONT TRANQUILITY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• EXPANSIVE MOUNTAIN RANGE
• JUNIATA RIVER
• VERSATILE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No formal parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewage; Electric service with fuses
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property type
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (stove)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heat; Oil heating; Wood heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Range (stove) included; No fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($902/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,496 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Huntingdon Area SD (town): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #366 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,617 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,162
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -39.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-9,781
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,352
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16652

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,108/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $89,900 Active 708-char remark
17. 2025-06-05
    price $98,900
18. 2025-05-05
    status Active
19. 2025-04-03
    price $109,000
20. 2024-10-24
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,108
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$822
• − Management: −$822
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $1,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntingdon Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212090
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,534
• Composite: 33.4/100
• National rank: #5478
• State rank: #366 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mill Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1496
• US rank: #19618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,858

Population outlook (Huntingdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,212 people
• By 2030: 43,057 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 40,537 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 37,844 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 31,411 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 23,907 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Huntingdon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.10%
• Current HPI: 197.6958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $89,900 HCBR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $98,900 HCBR
• 2025-05-05 Relisted — HCBR
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $109,000 HCBR
• 2024-10-24 Listed $115,000 HCBR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,108 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.