833 Wayne Ave · Warrington, FL 32507

$119,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1998 1.10 ac lot $93/sqft · 147% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $751 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.04%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,258
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 146.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 Gordon Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	10mo	$50,000	$40	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $25,218
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $70,380
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	23d	1	0.12mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	23d	1	0.12mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	14d	1	0.12mi
1405 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	23d	1	0.13mi
1401 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,750	$1.13	14d	1	0.14mi
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	23d	1	0.41mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	23d	1	0.48mi
727 Bremen Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	21d	1	0.59mi
102 SE Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1029	$1,800	$1.75	23d	1	0.62mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.63mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	23d	1	0.90mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	1.01mi
570 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	23d	1	1.01mi
210 S 2nd St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	23d	1	1.14mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	23d	1	1.18mi
346 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.20mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	23d	1	1.35mi
7591 W Highway 98 Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,781	$2.04	14d	9	1.38mi
7895 Bay Meadows Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	23d	1	1.38mi
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	23d	1	1.42mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	14d	1	1.45mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.45mi
542 S 72nd Ave Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $119,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $149,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

16. 2026-04-13
    price $155,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

17. 2026-03-25
    price $159,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

18. 2026-03-18
    price $169,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

19. 2026-03-14
    price $159,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

20. 2026-03-04
    listed $169,000 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Beautiful oak trees, 10 minutes from downtown Pensacola....3/2 bath 1998 16x80 mobile home... mixed use commercial and residential 1.1 acre....lot zoned HDMU (High Density Mixed Use) Possible real estate office, General office, residential..or commercial...use possible.. Zoned commercial or residential...RV storage.... tattoo shop, etc Located just 1.3 miles from the Navy Point Public Boat Launch, 1.7 miles from NAS Pensacola, 5 miles from downtown, and 11 miles from Perdido Key beaches.... Room to park your RV boat or toys. Or invest for future townhouse development.... Unincorporated area.. Lot size 140x350 Please contact Escambia county for all permitted uses

21. 2023-03-27
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Mobile home on 1.1 acre of land. Needs work but livable. Just off of Gulf Beach Highway and a quick trip to the beaches of Perdido Key. Gorgeous trees and zoned for high-density mixed use.

22. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 2023-02-17
    status Pending 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Mobile home on 1.1 acre of land. Needs work but livable. Just off of Gulf Beach Highway and a quick trip to the beaches of Perdido Key. Gorgeous trees and zoned for high-density mixed use.

24. 2022-07-20
    listed $90,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Mobile home on 1.1 acre of land. Needs work but livable. Just off of Gulf Beach Highway and a quick trip to the beaches of Perdido Key. Gorgeous trees and zoned for high-density mixed use.

25. 2022-07-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Mobile home on 1.1 acre of land. Needs work but livable. Just off of Gulf Beach Highway and a quick trip to the beaches of Perdido Key. Gorgeous trees and zoned for high-density mixed use.

26. 2022-05-31
    price $90,000
27. 2022-04-21
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$28/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $7,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,799
• After-tax cash flow: $7,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $149,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $159,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $169,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $159,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $169,000 PARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Listed $90,000 PARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Price Changed $90,000 PARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $140,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · +25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.