77 Jay Bird Ct · Jesup, GA 31545

$135,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Other · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 1.43 ac lot $151/sqft · 119% above area ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SKIRTING/STEPS currently being installed over the next few days! Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bath singlewide located on 1.43 acres in Jesup, Ga. Will qualify for USDA, FHA, and VA financing. Easy to show!

Key facts

• 1.43 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Jesup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#112 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #68 of 174 in GA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,000
• List price: $135,900
• Delta: 119.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,990
• Equity at exit: $20,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $15,491
• Equity at exit: $11,750

Cash invested: $38,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31545

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $135,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,975
• Closing costs: $4,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $135,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $139,900 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    SKIRTING/STEPS currently being installed over the next few days! Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bath singlewide located on 1.43 acres in Jesup, Ga. Will qualify for USDA, FHA, and VA financing. Easy to show!

19. 2026-03-31
    price $149,900 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    SKIRTING/STEPS currently being installed over the next few days! Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bath singlewide located on 1.43 acres in Jesup, Ga. Will qualify for USDA, FHA, and VA financing. Easy to show!

20. 2026-02-12
    listed $159,900 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    SKIRTING/STEPS currently being installed over the next few days! Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bath singlewide located on 1.43 acres in Jesup, Ga. Will qualify for USDA, FHA, and VA financing. Easy to show!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,613
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$3,953
• Taxable income: $907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 1305550
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,918
• Composite: 29.3/100
• National rank: #6554
• State rank: #68 of 174 in GA

Livability — Jesup

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #8442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,050
• Population (ZIP): 16,057

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,891 people
• By 2030: 28,388 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 27,396 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 26,135 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 23,253 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 19,481 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 20.0% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.10%
• Current HPI: 249.3504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $139,900 HABR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $149,900 HABR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $159,900 HABR

Property tax history

-8.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $132 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.