Grayton Plan · Navarre, FL 32566

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Grayton, an expansive split floorplan from our Value collection. This new home features 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, offering ample space for the entire family. As you enter through the front door, you'll be greeted by an open living area, encompassing the great room and dining room. This open concept design creates a seamless flow and a sense of togetherness. The kitchen is a true standout, boasting an abundance of counter space, providing a spacious and practical workspace for all your culinary endeavors. The Grayton is constructed with our renowned commitment to quality. This home incorporates energy-smart features throughout. These include a digital thermostat, a heating, ven

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Open living area
• Dining room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTER SPACE
• ENERGY-SMART FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $394,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Grayton); Address: 1940 Sunrise Dr, Navarre, FL 32566
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1805

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total bathrooms)
• Interior features: Plan named Grayton; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $407,930.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 768 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,405 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1927 Sparrow Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+1%)	7mo	$355,000	$194	85
1963 Sunrise Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,737 (-4%)	2mo	$405,000	$233	83
6958 Elliots Gin Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-3%)	2mo	$375,000	$214	76
1933 Seahawk Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (+8%)	1mo	$440,000	$226	70
1860 Sparrow Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-10%)	5mo	$335,000	$205	66
6912 Leisure St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,787 (-1%)	5mo	$390,000	$218	63
2011 Candlewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,895 (+5%)	9mo	$452,000	$239	54
1756 Shellfish Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (+6%)	7mo	$375,000	$196	53
2167 Sunrise Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-10%)	2mo	$385,000	$237	49
2038 Shannon Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-7%)	2mo	$380,000	$227	48
6977 Leisure St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,003 (+11%)	1mo	$455,500	$227	45
1736 Shellfish Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,043 (+13%)	7mo	$418,000	$205	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-122,279
• Equity at exit: $60,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-180,508
• Equity at exit: $35,270

Cash invested: $114,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,139
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$510 /mo · $6,119/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,568

Max offer price $281,676

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-591	-5% $-732	+0% $-873	+5% $-1,013	+10% $-1,154
Rent	-10% $-1,067	-5% $-970	+0% $-873	+5% $-775	+10% $-678
Rate	-1.0pp $-667	-0.5pp $-769	base $-873	+0.5pp $-978	+1.0pp $-1,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,982
• Closing costs: $12,238
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	14d	1	0.28mi
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.28mi
6952 Cotton Boll Ln Navarre, FL	4.0	2.0	1898	$2,195	$1.16	24d	1	0.33mi
6637 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	24d	1	0.67mi
6635 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	24d	1	0.67mi
6622 Perch St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,100	$1.34	24d	1	0.70mi
7160 Blue Jack Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,595	$1.20	24d	1	0.88mi
1827 Sundown Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	24d	1	0.90mi
1855 Lindsey Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2124	$2,695	$1.27	14d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	14d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	24d	1	1.13mi
1717 Sound Haven Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	3.0	1396	$2,050	$1.47	14d	1	1.15mi
7325 Emily Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	4.0	3.5	2510	$2,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.20mi
6539 Forest Bay Ave Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,850	$1.60	14d	1	1.40mi
2426 Houston Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,500	$1.70	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,990 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $289,990 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $404,990 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,990 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,990 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,850
• − Property taxes: −$6,119
• − Insurance: −$2,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$11,867
• Taxable loss: −$18,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navarre, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B