Grayton Plan · Navarre, FL 32566

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedroom, 2 Bath New Construction Home Introducing the Grayton, an expansive split floorplan from our Value collection. This new home features 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, offering ample space for the entire family. As you enter through the front door, you'll be greeted by an open living area, encompassing the great room and dining room. This open concept design creates a seamless flow and a sense of togetherness. The kitchen is a true standout, boasting an abundance of counter space, providing a spacious and practical workspace for all your culinary endeavors. The Grayton is constructed with our renowned commitment to quality. This home incorporates energy-smart features throughout.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Open living area
• Dining room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTER SPACE
• ENERGY-SMART FEATURES

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,807.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Intermediate School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 813 students, 37% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,784 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,807
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -17.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1927 Sparrow Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+1%)	10mo	$355,000	$194	82
1963 Sunrise Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,737 (-4%)	5mo	$405,000	$233	80
6958 Elliots Gin Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-3%)	5mo	$375,000	$214	73
1830 Seahawk Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (+4%)	3mo	$424,000	$226	71
1933 Seahawk Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (+8%)	4mo	$440,000	$226	67
1860 Sparrow Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-10%)	8mo	$335,000	$205	63
7053 Leisure St	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+2%)	1mo	$439,000	$239	61
6912 Leisure St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,787 (-1%)	8mo	$390,000	$218	60
6913 Sea Shark Cir	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,004 (+11%)	1mo	$359,000	$179	52
2167 Sunrise Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-10%)	5mo	$385,000	$237	46
2038 Shannon Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-7%)	5mo	$380,000	$227	46
6977 Leisure St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,003 (+11%)	4mo	$455,500	$227	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-88,793
• Equity at exit: $52,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-119,937
• Equity at exit: $30,418

Cash invested: $98,506 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,000 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 133 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,845
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,277/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,078

Max offer price $280,966

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-368	+0% $-490	+5% $-611	+10% $-733
Rent	-10% $-684	-5% $-587	+0% $-490	+5% $-392	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-400	base $-490	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,952
• Closing costs: $10,554
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,250	$1.16	119d	1	0.28mi
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	109d	1	0.28mi
6952 Cotton Boll Ln Navarre, FL	4.0	2.0	1898	$2,195	$1.16	119d	1	0.33mi
6637 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	119d	1	0.67mi
6635 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	119d	1	0.67mi
6622 Perch St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,100	$1.34	119d	1	0.70mi
7160 Blue Jack Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,595	$1.20	119d	1	0.88mi
1827 Sundown Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	119d	1	0.90mi
1855 Lindsey Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2124	$2,695	$1.27	109d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	119d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	109d	1	1.13mi
1717 Sound Haven Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	3.0	1396	$1,905	$1.36	62d	1	1.15mi
7325 Emily Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	4.0	3.5	2510	$2,800	$1.12	119d	1	1.20mi
6465 Starfish Cv Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,795	$1.43	2d	1	1.22mi
6539 Forest Bay Ave Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	6d	1	1.40mi
7392 Old Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2502	$2,850	$1.14	6d	1	1.42mi
2426 Houston Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,500	$1.70	119d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $394,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Grayton)Address: 1940 Sunrise Dr, Navarre, FL 32566
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1805

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total bathrooms)
• Interior features: Plan named GraytonActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $289,990 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $289,990 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $289,990 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $289,990 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $289,990 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 276 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 275 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 274 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 273 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,990 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 260 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 259 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 258 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 257 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 256 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 255 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,990 Active 254 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 253 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 252 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 251 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 250 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 249 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $289,990 Active 248 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 247 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 246 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 245 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 244 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 243 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 242 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $289,990 Active 241 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 240 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 239 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 238 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 237 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 236 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 235 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 234 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 233 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 229 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 227 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 225 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $289,990 Active 223 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 222 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,707
• − Property taxes: −$5,277
• − Insurance: −$1,759
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,360
• − Management: −$2,360
• − Depreciation: −$10,234
• Taxable loss: −$12,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,025–$27,075 screening

The Grayton home presents as a well-maintained and move-in-ready property with good exterior condition and a good floor plan. Minor cosmetic updates can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Trim the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Navarre Intermediate School A- FL #345/2,144 Nat'l #3,382/41,679 Middle Woodlawn Beach Middle School B+ FL #105/571 Nat'l #1,362/14,009 High Navarre High School C- FL #146/667 Nat'l #4,818/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navarre, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $394,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Grayton)Address: 1940 Sunrise Dr, Navarre, FL 32566
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1805

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total bathrooms)
• Interior features: Plan named GraytonActive listing