3019 E Louisiana Ave · Tampa, FL 33610

$101,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 6,732 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Investor Special. Property has a significant amount of deferred maintenance. Will require a full rehab.

Key facts

• 6,732 sq ft lot
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $101k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $101k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $698 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.44%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $16,839
• Equity at exit: $15,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $44,610
• Equity at exit: $8,733

Cash invested: $28,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33610

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$530
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,246/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $101,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,250
• Closing costs: $3,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 E McBerry St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,945	$1.74	4d	1	0.21mi
3612 E Osborne Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	576	$1,600	$2.78	24d	1	0.33mi
4204 N 29th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	957	$1,800	$1.88	24d	1	0.51mi
3706 E Shadowlawn Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,950	$1.81	10d	1	0.53mi
2501 E Chelsea St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	21d	1	0.53mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 4 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,575	$2.41	24d	1	0.58mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 8 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,495	$2.29	16d	1	0.58mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 8 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,495	$2.29	20d	1	0.58mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 5 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,595	$2.44	14d	1	0.58mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Apt 3 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,625	$2.48	24d	1	0.58mi
3022 Deleuil Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,850	$1.76	19d	1	0.59mi
3910 E Ellicott St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	24d	1	0.59mi
3625 E Mohawk Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	1110	$1,750	$1.58	14d	1	0.60mi
3705 E North Bay St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	969	$1,850	$1.91	3d	1	0.67mi
2402 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 4 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$800	$1.31	10d	1	0.73mi
2402 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	710	$1,699	$2.39	24d	1	0.73mi
5541 N 22nd St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,950	$2.44	2d	29	0.76mi
1709 E Chelsea St Unit F Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1041	$1,625	$1.56	23d	1	0.94mi
3001 E Jean St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	999	$1,695	$1.70	24d	1	0.96mi
3507 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.97mi
2016 E Clifton St Unit B Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,590	$2.45	24d	1	0.98mi
1517 E Giddens Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	792	$1,850	$2.34	24d	1	1.07mi
3405 N 34th St Unit C Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$795	$1.32	2d	1	1.08mi
5204 N 45th St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,350	$1.92	24d	1	1.10mi
3917 E Hanna Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	846	$2,100	$2.48	24d	1	1.10mi
2704 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,595	$1.86	21d	1	1.16mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.17mi
3919 E Fern St Apt 4 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	704	$1,075	$1.53	24d	1	1.20mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.21mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	1.21mi
1504 E 33rd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,900	$2.62	24d	1	1.25mi
4207 N 13th St Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$2,150	$2.58	24d	1	1.26mi
1515 E 31st Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,500	$1.64	4d	1	1.30mi
1605 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	870	$1,800	$2.07	20d	1	1.32mi
6209 N 43rd St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,595	$2.37	1d	1	1.35mi
6209 N 43rd St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,650	$2.46	21d	1	1.35mi
4811 E Curtis St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	891	$797	$0.89	24d	1	1.36mi
1215 E Mohawk Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	10d	1	1.40mi
4007 E Pocahontas Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-25
   historical
2. 2025-11-05
   listed $162,000 Active
3. 2025-02-04
   listed $101,000 Active
4. 2025-02-04
   status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,658
• − Property taxes: −$2,246
• − Insurance: −$505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$2,938
• Taxable income: $5,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $5,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,587
• Household income: $54,209
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2431.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% White 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.81%
• Current HPI: 428.9741
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+60.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Listed $101,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,246 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.