421 Clearwater St · Houston, TX 77029

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1940 7,501 sqft lot Est $220k · 28% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence with approximately 1900 sq ft of living space, featuring two primary suites—perfect for extended family or dual living arrangements. The home sits on a fully fenced lot with a large yard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. The property also includes an additional trailer with two rooms and a half bath, offering extra space for guests, a home office, or hobby use. Conveniently located with easy access to major roadways.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Two primary suites
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jacinto City El (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Woodland Acres Middle (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 93983% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Calloway St	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,584 (+8%)	5mo	$199,900	$126	81
2503 13th St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-3%)	4mo	$221,000	$156	76
328 Gans St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-0%)	4mo	$275,000	$189	70
2513 13th St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,258 (-14%)	1mo	$139,999	$111	69
320 Delaware St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+5%)	1mo	$165,000	$107	69
9803 Mimbrough St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-6%)	7mo	$207,000	$150	63
326 Gans St Unit A	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,505 (+3%)	7mo	$225,000	$150	62
324 Gans St Unit A	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,589 (+8%)	3mo	$215,000	$135	56
2012 10th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-5%)	6mo	$230,000	$165	48
213 Armstrong St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,281 (-12%)	4mo	$110,000	$86	48
2222 8th St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-15%)	7mo	$149,950	$120	46
9721 Stedman St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-14%)	2mo	$211,000	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $110,596
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $306,750
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $422	+0% $377	+5% $332	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $307	+0% $377	+5% $447	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $418	base $377	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
253 N Carolina St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,600	$1.03	8d	1	0.32mi
423 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,515	$1.39	2d	1	0.41mi
403 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	909	$1,435	$1.58	6d	1	0.42mi
205 Bolden St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	44d	1	0.46mi
9821 Turnbow St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,720	$1.51	44d	1	0.54mi
311 Massachusetts St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	13d	1	0.62mi
2216 3rd St Galena Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	44d	1	0.73mi
9710 Tuffly St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	25d	1	0.85mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-26
   price $159,000
3. 2026-01-14
   price $169,000
4. 2026-01-14
   listed $169 Active
5. 2025-11-28
   historical
6. 2025-10-10
   price $209,000
7. 2025-07-01
   status Active
8. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
9. 2025-03-18
   status Pending
10. 2025-03-17
    status Option Pending
11. 2025-03-04
    listed $249,999 Active
12. 2023-07-31
    historical
13. 2007-12-21
    soldstatus
14. 1996-03-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,485/yr (+$124/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $4,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $169 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2023-07-31 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,425 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.