1330 Ruffner Pl · Lynchburg, VA 24504

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1914 5,881 sqft lot Est $311k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For Comp Purposes Only.

Key facts

• 5,881 sq ft lot
• Built 1914

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linkhorne Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 409 students, 96% FRL); Linkhorne Middle (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #231 of 342 statewide, top 69%, 586 students, 95% FRL); E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 36% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $143k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,497 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,607
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Spring St	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,030 (-1%)	1mo	$307,500	$151	77
1208 Dearing St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,176 (+6%)	5mo	$170,000	$78	74
500 Amherst St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,854 (-10%)	2mo	$189,900	$102	68
226 Denver Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-13%)	9mo	$244,400	$137	66
847 Belmont St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,216 (+8%)	1mo	$291,000	$131	62
40 Easton Ave	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,293 (+12%)	10mo	$355,000	$155	57
114 Courtney Springs Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,052 (-0%)	10mo	$499,900	$244	55
838 Rivermont Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,216 (+8%)	10mo	$245,000	$111	53
432 Elmwood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	2,248 (+9%)	7mo	$340,000	$151	49
815 Elmwood Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,894 (-8%)	4mo	$513,500	$271	49
807 Elmwood Ave	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,231 (+8%)	8mo	$519,500	$233	42
242 Cleveland Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-12%)	8mo	$350,000	$193	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,346
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,550
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,210/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2021 Rivermont Ave Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	21d	1	0.48mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	21d	1	0.52mi
2202 Hollins Mill Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	21d	1	0.56mi
1009 4th St Apt 1 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	2607	$795	$0.30	44d	1	1.06mi
1014 Landon Ct Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2168	$2,495	$1.15	13d	1	1.15mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	13d	1	1.38mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	44d	1	1.41mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2021-07-08
   soldstatus $142,900 23-char remark

   Show marketing remark (23 chars)

   For Comp Purposes Only.

2. 2021-07-08
   listed $139,900 23-char remark

   Show marketing remark (23 chars)

   For Comp Purposes Only.

3. 2021-07-02
   soldstatus $142,900
4. 2015-10-30
   soldstatus $75,900
5. 2015-05-28
   listed $97,000
6. 2004-12-07
   soldstatus $61,900
7. 2000-09-08
   soldstatus $54,000
8. 1998-12-11
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$348/yr (+$29/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,210
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $2,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+257.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2021-07-08 Sold (MLS) $142,900 LMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 2021-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $142,900 Public Records
• 2015-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 2015-05-28 Listed $97,000 LMLS
• 2004-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records
• 2000-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,210 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.