18323 Wild Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$259,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2007 5,209 sqft lot Est $247k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely stunning 1 story 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Outstanding features in this home are the Hand Scraped Tanzanian Wenge Laminate floors in den & bedrooms, Corian Countertops w/ tile backsplash, 42 inch maple cabinets, black appliances, breakfast bar, separate shower/tub, tile in all wet areas, upgraded lighting/fans, faux blinds, designer accent paint & an awesome master closet custom made just for you. Lrg Pantry/Lrg utility. Nice size backyard w/ cov'd patio to enjoy those nice cool evenings

Key facts

• 5,209 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mayde Creek J H (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,273 students, 77% FRL); Mayde Creek H S (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,940 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 27% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 12900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,875 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,187
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3527 Zephyr Glen Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+7%)	2mo	$249,000	$142	72
18218 Wild Orchid Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+8%)	8mo	$259,900	$147	72
18218 Olive Leaf Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+14%)	3mo	$259,500	$139	69
3526 Cayo Hueso Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+1%)	12mo	$299,500	$181	69
18214 Olive Leaf Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,824 (+11%)	6mo	$245,000	$134	68
3030 Barkers Crossing Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+4%)	11mo	$270,000	$158	63
18519 Espada St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-12%)	1mo	$285,000	$199	62
3714 Siebinthaler Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,847 (+13%)	6mo	$279,000	$151	61
3002 Barkers Crossing Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+8%)	0mo	$265,000	$151	59
18523 Denise Dale Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-11%)	4mo	$180,000	$124	50
18542 Glen Briar Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-12%)	8mo	$265,000	$185	39
18723 Clover Gln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-14%)	9mo	$242,000	$172	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,392
• Equity at exit: $57,850

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,919
• Equity at exit: $56,655

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 494
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,097/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $215,067

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3435 Clipper Winds Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,799	$1.03	12d	1	0.17mi
3331 Dale Ridge Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$2,121	$0.96	22d	1	0.38mi
18407 Early Green Trl Unit 1316402P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,988	$2.57	2d	1	0.41mi
3740 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,070	$2.22	2d	250	0.41mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,937	$1.55	2d	1	0.58mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,157	$1.51	2d	1	0.58mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,200	$1.54	11d	1	0.58mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,189	$1.54	10d	1	0.61mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,969	$1.58	10d	1	0.61mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2959 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,110	$1.48	43d	1	0.61mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2963 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,820	$1.46	43d	1	0.61mi
2937 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,456	$1.28	43d	1	0.67mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	12d	1	0.69mi
2931 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,796	$1.69	2d	20	0.75mi
18747 Denise Dale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	5d	1	0.79mi
19138 Morton Rd Unit TOBC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	2d	1	0.91mi
3338 Marks Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,800	$1.21	5d	1	1.04mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	5d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,999 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,999 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,999 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $259,999 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,999 Coming Soon 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,999 Coming Soon 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,999 Coming Soon 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,999 Coming Soon 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,999 Coming Soon 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    historical $259,999
15. 2025-05-20
    historical $2,000
16. 2025-05-14
    listed $2,000
17. 2025-05-09
    historical $2,000
18. 2025-04-29
    price $2,000
19. 2025-04-12
    listed $2,200
20. 2025-04-11
    listed $2,200 Active
21. 2025-04-11
    historical
22. 2024-06-20
    historical $1,950
23. 2024-06-14
    price $1,950
24. 2024-05-29
    listed $2,200
25. 2014-01-22
    soldstatus
26. 2014-01-21
    soldstatus Sold 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Absolutely stunning 1 story 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Outstanding features in this home are the Hand Scraped Tanzanian Wenge Laminate floors in den & bedrooms, Corian Countertops w/ tile backsplash, 42 inch maple cabinets, black appliances, breakfast bar, separate shower/tub, tile in all wet areas, upgraded lighting/fans, faux blinds, designer accent paint & an awesome master closet custom made just for you. Lrg Pantry/Lrg utility. Nice size backyard w/ cov'd patio to enjoy those nice cool evenings

27. 2014-01-03
    status Pending, Continue to Show 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Absolutely stunning 1 story 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Outstanding features in this home are the Hand Scraped Tanzanian Wenge Laminate floors in den & bedrooms, Corian Countertops w/ tile backsplash, 42 inch maple cabinets, black appliances, breakfast bar, separate shower/tub, tile in all wet areas, upgraded lighting/fans, faux blinds, designer accent paint & an awesome master closet custom made just for you. Lrg Pantry/Lrg utility. Nice size backyard w/ cov'd patio to enjoy those nice cool evenings

28. 2013-12-30
    status Option Pending 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Absolutely stunning 1 story 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Outstanding features in this home are the Hand Scraped Tanzanian Wenge Laminate floors in den & bedrooms, Corian Countertops w/ tile backsplash, 42 inch maple cabinets, black appliances, breakfast bar, separate shower/tub, tile in all wet areas, upgraded lighting/fans, faux blinds, designer accent paint & an awesome master closet custom made just for you. Lrg Pantry/Lrg utility. Nice size backyard w/ cov'd patio to enjoy those nice cool evenings

29. 2013-12-03
    listed $141,750 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Absolutely stunning 1 story 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Outstanding features in this home are the Hand Scraped Tanzanian Wenge Laminate floors in den & bedrooms, Corian Countertops w/ tile backsplash, 42 inch maple cabinets, black appliances, breakfast bar, separate shower/tub, tile in all wet areas, upgraded lighting/fans, faux blinds, designer accent paint & an awesome master closet custom made just for you. Lrg Pantry/Lrg utility. Nice size backyard w/ cov'd patio to enjoy those nice cool evenings

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,097 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,097 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$5,097
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+83.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Coming Soon $259,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-05-29 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2014-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-01-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-01-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-12-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-12-03 Listed $141,750 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,097 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.