133 Brenda Pl · Canyonville, OR 97417

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2002 $66/sqft · 27% below area Est $138k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a desirable 55+ gated community, this home offers vaulted ceilings, a modern open-concept layout, and an electric fireplace in the main living area. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and a double-sink vanity with granite countertops. Granite surfaces extend throughout the home. The exterior features a well-maintained, low-maintenance yard with ample patio space for outdoor use. Seller will allow a $4,000 paint allowance with an acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Double-sink vanity
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE-SINK VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is gently sloping and on a paved road; Lot rent listed monthly
• Financial info: Land lease expires May 31, 2027
• HOA & community: Located in Knoll Terrace park; Land lease applies (monthly lot rent)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (residential); Single-level living; Mountain view
• Construction: Built in 2002; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Sprinkler system; Yard; T-111 siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Granite countertops; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main) with ceiling fan, double sinks, walk-in closet, and walk-in shower; Second bedroom (main) with ceiling fan; Third bedroom (main) with ceiling fan
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Garage door opener; Granite surfaces; Laminate flooring; Laundry area; Vaulted ceilings; Double pane windows with vinyl frames; Electric fireplace; Crawl space foundation; Accessible features including garage on main, ground level, minimal steps, utility room on main, walk-in shower, and good natural lighting
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry / utility room; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#183 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canyonville School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #284 of 412 statewide, top 70%, 170 students, 72% FRL); South Umpqua High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 443 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.66%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,582
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -27.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Samantha Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	18mo	$119,500	$82	76
204 Samantha Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+8%)	9mo	$157,500	$96	75
102 Kimberly Way	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-4%)	22mo	$120,000	$82	75
135 Samantha Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	22mo	$100,000	$69	74
381 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	9mo	$139,500	$99	74
112 Brenda Pl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	20mo	$126,000	$89	70
150 Kimberly Way	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-11%)	6mo	$97,000	$72	70
167 Kimberly Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-11%)	2mo	$110,000	$81	69
450 Sandra Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (0%)	16mo	$255,000	$169	68
190 Wild Creek Way	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-7%)	12mo	$114,000	$81	62
175 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,367 (-10%)	20mo	$111,250	$81	60
454 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+13%)	18mo	$135,000	$79	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $27,874
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $81,025
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97417

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $961/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $818

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $720	+0% $692	+5% $664	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $625	+0% $692	+5% $759	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $742	-0.5pp $718	base $692	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 S Pine St Canyonville, OR	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,800	$1.10	44d	1	0.49mi
450 Maylea Pl Canyonville, OR	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,999 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    listed $99,999 Active 493-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $961 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$961
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $6,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Canyonville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #11206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyonville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,462

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.05%
• Current HPI: 339.7648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $99,999 RMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $961 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.