417 Bailey Ave · Buffalo, NY 14210

$9,900

None bd · None ba · 1,982 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 1910 3,600 sqft lot $5/sqft · 95% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Vacant lot
• Bailey avenue
• Convenient access

Tags

• VACANT LOT
• BAILEY AVENUE
• GREAT VISIBILITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available (public; not connected)
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing construction
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 120
• Exterior features: Exterior details: see remarks; Irregular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Other room types
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks
• Interior features: Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a land listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 141.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($68 loan paydown + $990 appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 14.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 141.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 481.57%
• DSCR: 22.43
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,110
• List price: $9,900
• Delta: -95.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.86×
• Total profit: $55,049
• Equity at exit: $8,919

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 54.91×
• Total profit: $149,449
• Equity at exit: $19,234

Cash invested: $2,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax from tax record: −$2 /mo · $26/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $657

Max offer price $9,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,475
• Closing costs: $297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	10d	1	0.96mi
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	2d	1	1.31mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	1.39mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.39mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $9,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $9,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $9,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $9,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $9,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $9,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $9,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $9,900 371-char remark
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $29,900 Active 371-char remark
17. 2026-05-08
    historical
18. 2026-02-25
    price $9,900
19. 2025-11-18
    price $19,900
20. 2025-08-29
    listed $29,900 Active
21. 2025-08-20
    historical
22. 2025-06-25
    price $29,900
23. 2025-02-10
    status Active
24. 2024-08-31
    historical
25. 2024-08-03
    price $39,900
26. 2024-04-01
    status Active
27. 2023-10-30
    status Active
28. 2023-09-15
    historical
29. 2023-09-14
    price $42,500
30. 2023-09-14
    status Active
31. 2023-08-07
    historical
32. 2023-06-15
    listed $54,900 Active
33. 2019-10-10
    historical
34. 2019-07-10
    listed $40,000 Active
35. 2009-05-22
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $26 · $2/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $97 · $8/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 266.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$555
• − Property taxes: −$26
• − Insurance: −$5,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$288
• Taxable income: $8,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,038
• After-tax cash flow: $5,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-67.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $9,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $29,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $9,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $19,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $29,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-20 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $29,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-10 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-03 Price Changed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-04-01 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2023-10-30 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-15 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $42,500 UNYREIS
• 2023-09-14 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2023-08-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-06-15 Listed $54,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-10-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-07-10 Listed $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $26 · -89.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.