15301 Coaltown Rd · Willis, TX 77378

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2025 $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming new construction home situated on a desirable corner lot, offering 2-3 bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for modern living. The first floor features a versatile bedroom/study with a full bathroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space. The stylish kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances and a convenient pot filler above the stove, perfect for cooking enthusiasts. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms sharing a full bathroom, along with a conveniently located laundry area. Enjoy the oversized backyard, ideal for entertaining, family gatherings, and weekend barbecues. The double-wide driveway provides parking for up to four vehicles. Located just m

Key facts

• Versatile bedroom
• Double-wide driveway
• Pot filler

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• POT FILLER
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• DOUBLE-WIDE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Arrowhead Lakes Property Owners association; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025)
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Property located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the first level; Primary bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,688 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,145
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,132
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15309 Coaltown Rd Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,445	$1.20	24d	1	0.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $185,000 Active
15. 2026-04-22
    historical
16. 2025-11-21
    listed $186,900 Active
17. 2025-11-20
    historical
18. 2025-09-22
    status Active
19. 2025-09-15
    status Pending
20. 2025-08-21
    price $189,900
21. 2025-07-31
    price $196,000
22. 2025-07-17
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2025-07-17
    historical
24. 2025-06-20
    price $204,900
25. 2025-06-13
    price $209,000
26. 2025-05-23
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $186,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $196,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $215,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $116 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.