3008 Lincoln Log Way · Locust Grove, GA 30252

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $392k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential and plenty of space to make it your own. Featuring an attractive brick front, a bright sunroom perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a backyard with a privacy fence, this property has several desirable features already in place. Conveniently located close to the interstate, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, it offers easy access for commuting and daily living. The home does need some TLC, making it a wonderful opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone looking to add their personal touch and build equity. Don't miss the chance to turn this house into a wonderful home!

Key facts

• Easy access
• Brick front
• Backyard

Tags

• BRICK FRONT
• SUNROOM
• BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with amenities including clubhouse, pool, and sidewalks; Association fees support a reserve fund and community swimming

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; High-speed internet available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential resale; One story
• Construction: Built in 2002; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Above-grade finished living area recorded
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Sun room; One-level living; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tussahaw Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 802 students, 69% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 1,103 students, 51% FRL); Locust Grove High (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 1,637 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 569 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3108 Delaware Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-7%)	3mo	$290,000	$187	79
140 Harris Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-11%)	16mo	$349,900	$236	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,687
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $23,700
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30252

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $719	-5% $647	+0% $575	+5% $503	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $367	-5% $471	+0% $575	+5% $679	+10% $783
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $640	base $575	+0.5pp $509	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Grant Ave McDonough, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,900	$2.52	0d	52	0.34mi
1301 Academic Pkwy Locust Grove, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1266	$2,068	$1.63	0d	30	1.24mi
509 Curry Ridge Ct Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,230	$1.02	5d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 New 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 New 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 New 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 New 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 New 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $255,000 New
15. 2002-10-29
    soldstatus $2,439,000
16. 2002-10-29
    soldstatus $340,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,346 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,554/yr (+$129/mo · 196.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $2,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$679
• After-tax cash flow: $6,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 49,554
• Household income: $100,770
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 343.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 36% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.97%
• Current HPI: 207.2801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-89.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2002-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $2,439,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.