5902 Yorkgate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1976 7,200 sqft lot Est $332k · 47% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Cozy fireplace
• Spacious closet

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chet Burchett El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 904 students, 82% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $175k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,229
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6410 Archgate Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-8%)	22mo	$234,999	$136	37
22602 Jay Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,145 (+14%)	11mo	$380,000	$177	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,174
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,643
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,313/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-27
   price $175,000
4. 2026-02-20
   price $177,000
5. 2026-01-09
   price $181,000
6. 2025-12-12
   price $183,000
7. 2025-11-06
   listed $185,000 Active
8. 2025-11-06
   historical
9. 2025-11-04
   status Active
10. 2025-10-28
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-17
    price $185,000
12. 2025-09-26
    price $191,000
13. 2025-09-11
    price $195,000
14. 2025-08-29
    price $197,000
15. 2025-08-15
    price $203,000
16. 2025-08-01
    price $211,000
17. 2025-07-18
    price $220,000
18. 2025-07-11
    price $227,000
19. 2025-07-02
    price $234,000
20. 2025-06-27
    price $241,000
21. 2025-06-19
    price $248,000
22. 2025-05-22
    listed $261,000 Active
23. 2022-06-25
    price $1,640
24. 2014-07-23
    soldstatus
25. 2014-07-22
    historical 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

26. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus Sold 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

27. 2014-05-12
    status Option Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

28. 2014-04-28
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

29. 2014-04-28
    status Pending, Continue to Show 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

30. 2014-04-28
    price $96,000 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

31. 2014-04-12
    listed $98,000 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Close to Bush Intercontinental Airport. Cozy 3/2/2 home.

32. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus
33. 2008-11-26
    historical
34. 2008-07-09
    listed $59,900
35. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus
36. 1997-01-15
    soldstatus $56,900
37. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus $40,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,313 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,313 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,313
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$531
• After-tax cash flow: $4,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+333.2% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $177,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $181,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $183,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $191,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $203,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $211,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $227,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $234,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $241,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $248,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $261,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $1,640 RENT.
• 2014-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Price Changed $96,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-12 Listed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2008-11-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-09 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2005-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,313 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.