Holly Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 285 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Holly is a beautifully designed home in Firethorn featuring 1,455 square feet of open concept living space. The home brings forward 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and more! Through the foyer, you'll find the kitchen overlooks the dining and great room, which leads out to the patio for true indoor/outdoor living, and perfect for enjoying the warm Florida weather. The laundry room sits between the kitchen and 2-car garage. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom, and the primary suite is tucked privately away at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 285 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN OVERLOOKS DINING
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13610 Cornerstone Way, Parrish FL 34219; List price $299,729; Status: Active; Inventory type: Plan; Last updated: 2026-05-21

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Exterior features: Living area 1,455 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Holly (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $299,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,095.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-625/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,425 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,095
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13819 Sawmill St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$303,000	$202	88
13126 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	10mo	$299,900	$207	72
13146 Empress Jewel Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	12mo	$314,900	$217	70
13139 Empress Jewel Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	12mo	$309,900	$214	69
13241 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	19mo	$299,900	$207	68
12414 Sweet Angel Aura Way Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	13mo	$314,900	$217	64
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	9mo	$304,250	$196	62
13224 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	18mo	$299,900	$207	60
12969 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	11mo	$324,900	$209	52
13012 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$334,900	$215	39
13035 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$325,900	$210	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,157
• Equity at exit: $45,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-85,877
• Equity at exit: $26,293

Cash invested: $85,147 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,595
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,561/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $296,560

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,024
• Closing costs: $9,123
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	2d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,999 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,199 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,199 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,199 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,199 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,199 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,199 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $325,199 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,034
• − Property taxes: −$4,561
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,490
• − Management: −$2,490
• − Depreciation: −$8,846
• Taxable loss: −$5,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B