161 Matthew Paul Way #21 · Anchorage, AK 99504

$238,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2009 $165/sqft · 10% below area Est $265k · 10% under $455/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a recent $27,000 adjustment, this well-maintained townhouse presents an excellent opportunity in northeast Anchorage. This townhouse has more of what you want, less of what you don't. More space, more light, more rooms, less shared wall space. One of the larger floor plans with THREE BEDROOMS! A desirable end-unit means only one shared wall and additional windows/light. This 3 bed, 1.5 bath.. townhome boasts a beautiful kitchen w/pantry, bay windows, spacious primary w/walk-in closet, laundry room, and private fenced backyard w/shed. Currently tenant occupied, but clean and well-kept and available for showing. The seller is ready for the right buyer, making this the perfect chance to move into a quality home at a competitive price.

Key facts

• Desirable end-unit
• $455 HOA
• Built 2009

Tags

• DESIRABLE END-UNIT
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $189,887 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,215
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-56,594
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-74,389
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99504

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,733/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $189,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-205	+0% $-272	+5% $-340	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-364	+0% $-272	+5% $-180	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-212	base $-272	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 Skwentna Dr Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1535	$2,500	$1.63	44d	1	0.10mi
6810 Gold Kings Cir Unit B Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,550	$2.12	14d	1	0.27mi
5901 E 6th Ave Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$2,430	$2.68	14d	7	0.34mi
7005 Gold Kings Ave Unit B Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,445	$2.04	44d	1	0.39mi
7045 Gold Kings Ave Unit C Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,600	$2.17	24d	1	0.44mi
5741 Rocky Mountain Ct Unit D Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	24d	1	0.50mi
422 Oklahoma St Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,300	$1.51	24d	1	0.65mi
7401 E 4th Ave Unit 6 Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,150	$1.69	24d	1	0.70mi
5201 Chena Ave #1 Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.74mi
7746 Boundary Ave Unit B2 Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1189	$2,300	$1.93	24d	1	0.84mi
8114 Boundary Ave Apt D Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	1023	$1,750	$1.71	14d	1	1.12mi
248 Zappa Pl Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	44d	1	1.19mi
423 N Lane St Apt 1 Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	24d	1	1.20mi
423 N Lane St #4 Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	980	$2,050	$2.09	24d	1	1.20mi
6721 Foothill Dr Anchorage, AK	4.0	2.0	1824	$3,100	$1.70	14d	1	1.24mi
4413 E 8th Ave Unit B Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	44d	1	1.33mi
814 N Bunn St Unit 4 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	14d	1	1.37mi
1916 Beaver Pl #1 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	24d	1	1.37mi
524 N Klevin St Unit B Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $238,000 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   With a recent $27,000 adjustment, this well-maintained townhouse presents an excellent opportunity in northeast Anchorage. This townhouse has more of what you want, less of what you don't. More space, more light, more rooms, less shared wall space. One of the larger floor plans with THREE BEDROOMS! A desirable end-unit means only one shared wall and additional windows/light. This 3 bed, 1.5 bath.. townhome boasts a beautiful kitchen w/pantry, bay windows, spacious primary w/walk-in closet, laundry room, and private fenced backyard w/shed. Currently tenant occupied, but clean and well-kept and available for showing. The seller is ready for the right buyer, making this the perfect chance to move into a quality home at a competitive price.

2. 2026-04-25
   price $265,000 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   With a recent $27,000 adjustment, this well-maintained townhouse presents an excellent opportunity in northeast Anchorage. This townhouse has more of what you want, less of what you don't. More space, more light, more rooms, less shared wall space. One of the larger floor plans with THREE BEDROOMS! A desirable end-unit means only one shared wall and additional windows/light. This 3 bed, 1.5 bath.. townhome boasts a beautiful kitchen w/pantry, bay windows, spacious primary w/walk-in closet, laundry room, and private fenced backyard w/shed. Currently tenant occupied, but clean and well-kept and available for showing. The seller is ready for the right buyer, making this the perfect chance to move into a quality home at a competitive price.

3. 2026-04-18
   listed $275,000 Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   With a recent $27,000 adjustment, this well-maintained townhouse presents an excellent opportunity in northeast Anchorage. This townhouse has more of what you want, less of what you don't. More space, more light, more rooms, less shared wall space. One of the larger floor plans with THREE BEDROOMS! A desirable end-unit means only one shared wall and additional windows/light. This 3 bed, 1.5 bath.. townhome boasts a beautiful kitchen w/pantry, bay windows, spacious primary w/walk-in closet, laundry room, and private fenced backyard w/shed. Currently tenant occupied, but clean and well-kept and available for showing. The seller is ready for the right buyer, making this the perfect chance to move into a quality home at a competitive price.

4. 2024-06-14
   soldstatus Closed 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Next to living room , dining area and half bath is a large kitchen with pantry, breakfast bar and sliding glass door to fenced back yard. Master bedrooms has a walk in closet and bay window. Two more bedrooms, full bathroom and separate laundry room. Buyer and licensee to verify all information and financing options.

5. 2024-06-14
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Next to living room , dining area and half bath is a large kitchen with pantry, breakfast bar and sliding glass door to fenced back yard. Master bedrooms has a walk in closet and bay window. Two more bedrooms, full bathroom and separate laundry room. Buyer and licensee to verify all information and financing options.

6. 2024-05-13
   status Pending 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Next to living room , dining area and half bath is a large kitchen with pantry, breakfast bar and sliding glass door to fenced back yard. Master bedrooms has a walk in closet and bay window. Two more bedrooms, full bathroom and separate laundry room. Buyer and licensee to verify all information and financing options.

7. 2024-05-10
   listed $245,000 Active 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Next to living room , dining area and half bath is a large kitchen with pantry, breakfast bar and sliding glass door to fenced back yard. Master bedrooms has a walk in closet and bay window. Two more bedrooms, full bathroom and separate laundry room. Buyer and licensee to verify all information and financing options.

8. 2009-09-08
   listed $201,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,733 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,733 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,733
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$7,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 42,093
• Household income: $86,710
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 13% Native American 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Ukrainian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.29%
• Current HPI: 259.8803
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $238,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $265,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $275,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2024-05-13 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-05-10 Listed $245,000 AKMLS
• 2009-09-08 Listed $201,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,733 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.