1784 E Neil Cir · Wasilla, AK 99654

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · MultiFamily

Built 2006 Fair condition ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Nice cozy two bedroom one bathroom condo in nice quiet neighborhood small garage. It is an upstairs unit. HOA includes heat water, hot water, snow removal, lawn care and all outside maintenance.

Key facts

• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $205k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-207/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Wasilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#58 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, health & safety C-.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $177,148 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-39,414
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-55,446
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $202,505

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $54	+0% $-17	+5% $-88	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-87	+0% $-17	+5% $53	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $35	base $-17	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1635 Kinzi Cir #3 Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,835	$1.60	44d	1	0.06mi
1640 Kinzi Cir #2 Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,835	$1.60	44d	1	0.06mi
1165 Westpoint Dr Unit 3 Wasilla, AK	1.0	1.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	14d	1	0.87mi
5776 E Usa Cir #2 Wasilla, AK	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	44d	1	1.02mi
1851 E Ted's Pl Unit B Wasilla, AK	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	24d	1	1.16mi
126 E Susitna Ave Wasilla, AK	2.0	1.0	752	$1,550	$2.06	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $205,000
2. 2007-02-07
   listed $417,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family unit requires significant renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. A kitchen and bathroom renovation, along with exterior updates, would be the most impactful.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen countertops — Significant wear and tear observed.
• Major bathroom vanity — Appears outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major exterior siding — Significant discoloration and wear.
• Major windows — Old and possibly in need of replacement.
• Major flooring — Worn and may need replacement or refinish.
• Major interior walls — Significant wear and may need repainting or repairs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — A fresh kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom can also boost both resale and rental value.
• Both exterior siding and windows — Fresh siding and new windows can improve curb appeal and increase value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · Significant wear and tear observed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom vanity · Appears outdated and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant discoloration and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old and possibly in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and may need replacement or refinish.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Significant wear and may need repainting or repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — A fresh kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom can also boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior siding and windows — Fresh siding and new windows can improve curb appeal and increase value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Wasilla

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #16709

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute D- Cost of living C- Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wasilla, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 44,647
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-50.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $205,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-02-07 Listed $417,500 AKMLS