11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #270 · Surprise, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 114°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +9.1/15.0
- Appreciation +5.1/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Condition / age +2.8/5.0
- Rent growth +1.1/5.0
$79,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
*** Fresh New Price *** One Of A Kind Property Located In The Highly Sought After GATED Active Adult 55+ Community, Rose Garden Resort. This Lovely Home Has Been Well Cared For W/ Many Expensive Updates Done In The Last Few Years: Roof Replaced, HVAC Replaced, Water Heater, Dishwasher, Washer & Dryer All Replaced, Lg Private Shed Can Be Used As A Workshop, Doggy Area Off Private Screened In Deck, Private Covered Parking Of 1-2 Vehicles Depending On Size. The 2nd Entrance Has A Ramp Leading To A Fantastic Screened In Deck To Welcome You & Guests. This Home Boasts Vaulted Ceilings, A Lg Living Room, Dinning Space In The Living Room & Off The Open Kitchen, Inside Laundry, 2 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Both W/ Step-in Showers. Don't Miss Out On This One! Click On MORE For Additional Inf Enjoy All That This Community Has To Offer With Community Events To Help Everyone Mingle & Get To Know Each Other, Coin Operated Washers & Dryers Laundry Room, Commercial Ice Machine, Community Pool & Hot Tub, Sauna, Game Rooms, Meeting Rooms, Workout Facility, Pickleball Courts, Shuffle Board Courts, Horse Shoe Courts, Dog Park, & Recreation Room. Look At The Photos. So Much Being Offered In This Community.
Key facts
- Parking
- Community pool
- Built 1984
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated average.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
- Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
- Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $686 of equity ($546 loan paydown + $140 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $45k; list at $79k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.29% ✓
- Cap rate
- 19.75%
- Cash-on-cash
- 48.06%
- DSCR
- 3.14
- GRM
- 3.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $81,867
- List price
- $79,000
- Delta
- -3.50%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 13 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #125 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,040 (-2%) | 15mo | $61,000 | $59 | 85 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #283 | 0.19mi | 2/2.0 | 1,032 (-2%) | 5mo | $74,000 | $72 | 83 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (+9%) | 6mo | $62,000 | $54 | 80 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #5 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 922 (-13%) | 9mo | $69,000 | $75 | 71 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,203 (+14%) | 7mo | $135,000 | $112 | 71 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #169 | 0.32mi | 2/2.0 | 1,056 (0%) | 18mo | $45,000 | $43 | 70 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23 | 0.19mi | 2/2.0 | 1,173 (+11%) | 5mo | $79,990 | $68 | 68 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 46.6%
- Equity multiple
- 3.24×
- Total profit
- $49,487
- Equity at exit
- $23,640
- IRR
- 47.8%
- Equity multiple
- 5.81×
- Total profit
- $106,444
- Equity at exit
- $28,983
Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85378
- Home prices YoY
- 0.1%
- Rents YoY
- -5.5%
- Active inventory
- 76
- Price-to-rent
- 3.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,812 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$414
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
- Insurance
- −$33
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$381
- Net cashflow
- $886
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $940 | -5% $913 | +0% $886 | +5% $859 | +10% $831 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $743 | -5% $814 | +0% $886 | +5% $957 | +10% $1,029 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $926 | -0.5pp $906 | base $886 | +0.5pp $865 | +1.0pp $845 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $19,750
- Closing costs
- $2,370
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $1,930 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1130 | $1,750 | $1.55 | 5d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 782 | $1,497 | $1.91 | 24d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $1,822 | $1.54 | 24d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1078 | $1,732 | $1.61 | 24d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1078 | $1,813 | $1.68 | 13d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $1,981 | $1.67 | 2d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 782 | $1,714 | $2.19 | 15d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1310 | $1,599 | $1.22 | 24d | 2 | 1.05mi |
| 16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1052 | $1,462 | $1.39 | 2d | 3 | 1.13mi |
| 15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 920 | $1,450 | $1.58 | 5d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.5 | 1267 | $1,695 | $1.34 | 2d | 17 | 1.22mi |
| 11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1301 | $2,070 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 995 | $2,800 | $2.81 | 20d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 995 | $3,000 | $3.02 | 15d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 936 | $2,017 | $2.15 | 1d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,275 | $1.70 | 24d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1308 | $1,595 | $1.22 | 24d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $79,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $79,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $79,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $79,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $79,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $79,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $79,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $79,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-05-12price $79,000 1246-char remark
Show marketing remark (1246 chars)
*** Fresh New Price *** One Of A Kind Property Located In The Highly Sought After GATED Active Adult 55+ Community, Rose Garden Resort. This Lovely Home Has Been Well Cared For W/ Many Expensive Updates Done In The Last Few Years: Roof Replaced, HVAC Replaced, Water Heater, Dishwasher, Washer & Dryer All Replaced, Lg Private Shed Can Be Used As A Workshop, Doggy Area Off Private Screened In Deck, Private Covered Parking Of 1-2 Vehicles Depending On Size. The 2nd Entrance Has A Ramp Leading To A Fantastic Screened In Deck To Welcome You & Guests. This Home Boasts Vaulted Ceilings, A Lg Living Room, Dinning Space In The Living Room & Off The Open Kitchen, Inside Laundry, 2 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Both W/ Step-in Showers. Don't Miss Out On This One! Click On MORE For Additional Inf Enjoy All That This Community Has To Offer With Community Events To Help Everyone Mingle & Get To Know Each Other, Coin Operated Washers & Dryers Laundry Room, Commercial Ice Machine, Community Pool & Hot Tub, Sauna, Game Rooms, Meeting Rooms, Workout Facility, Pickleball Courts, Shuffle Board Courts, Horse Shoe Courts, Dog Park, & Recreation Room. Look At The Photos. So Much Being Offered In This Community.
-
2026-05-08$99,000 Active 1246-char remark
Show marketing remark (1246 chars)
*** Fresh New Price *** One Of A Kind Property Located In The Highly Sought After GATED Active Adult 55+ Community, Rose Garden Resort. This Lovely Home Has Been Well Cared For W/ Many Expensive Updates Done In The Last Few Years: Roof Replaced, HVAC Replaced, Water Heater, Dishwasher, Washer & Dryer All Replaced, Lg Private Shed Can Be Used As A Workshop, Doggy Area Off Private Screened In Deck, Private Covered Parking Of 1-2 Vehicles Depending On Size. The 2nd Entrance Has A Ramp Leading To A Fantastic Screened In Deck To Welcome You & Guests. This Home Boasts Vaulted Ceilings, A Lg Living Room, Dinning Space In The Living Room & Off The Open Kitchen, Inside Laundry, 2 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Both W/ Step-in Showers. Don't Miss Out On This One! Click On MORE For Additional Inf Enjoy All That This Community Has To Offer With Community Events To Help Everyone Mingle & Get To Know Each Other, Coin Operated Washers & Dryers Laundry Room, Commercial Ice Machine, Community Pool & Hot Tub, Sauna, Game Rooms, Meeting Rooms, Workout Facility, Pickleball Courts, Shuffle Board Courts, Horse Shoe Courts, Dog Park, & Recreation Room. Look At The Photos. So Much Being Offered In This Community.
-
2026-04-23price $99,000 1246-char remark
Show marketing remark (1246 chars)
*** Fresh New Price *** One Of A Kind Property Located In The Highly Sought After GATED Active Adult 55+ Community, Rose Garden Resort. This Lovely Home Has Been Well Cared For W/ Many Expensive Updates Done In The Last Few Years: Roof Replaced, HVAC Replaced, Water Heater, Dishwasher, Washer & Dryer All Replaced, Lg Private Shed Can Be Used As A Workshop, Doggy Area Off Private Screened In Deck, Private Covered Parking Of 1-2 Vehicles Depending On Size. The 2nd Entrance Has A Ramp Leading To A Fantastic Screened In Deck To Welcome You & Guests. This Home Boasts Vaulted Ceilings, A Lg Living Room, Dinning Space In The Living Room & Off The Open Kitchen, Inside Laundry, 2 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Both W/ Step-in Showers. Don't Miss Out On This One! Click On MORE For Additional Inf Enjoy All That This Community Has To Offer With Community Events To Help Everyone Mingle & Get To Know Each Other, Coin Operated Washers & Dryers Laundry Room, Commercial Ice Machine, Community Pool & Hot Tub, Sauna, Game Rooms, Meeting Rooms, Workout Facility, Pickleball Courts, Shuffle Board Courts, Horse Shoe Courts, Dog Park, & Recreation Room. Look At The Photos. So Much Being Offered In This Community.
-
2023-11-30soldstatus $45,000 Closed 736-char remark
Show marketing remark (736 chars)
Steal of the Day! This home is priced well below market value. Seller wants to move this 1984 Cavco quickly. Roof and HVAC replaced in 2017, Washer/Dryer 2020, water lines, hot water heater and dishwasher replaced in 2021. This is a 2 bedroom 2 bath home, both baths haves step in showers. Dual pane windows, carpet has been cleaned but may need replacing. This is a very nice home with a screened in front deck, large living room and semi open floor plan. Don't let the price stop you from seeing this one. It is a gem. Owner has never lived in the home. Storage shed and a ramp into the home complete the package. 55+ gated Community, club house and pickle ball courts. 2 Dog parks See clubhouse for list of activities
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2023-11-21status Pending 736-char remark
Show marketing remark (736 chars)
Steal of the Day! This home is priced well below market value. Seller wants to move this 1984 Cavco quickly. Roof and HVAC replaced in 2017, Washer/Dryer 2020, water lines, hot water heater and dishwasher replaced in 2021. This is a 2 bedroom 2 bath home, both baths haves step in showers. Dual pane windows, carpet has been cleaned but may need replacing. This is a very nice home with a screened in front deck, large living room and semi open floor plan. Don't let the price stop you from seeing this one. It is a gem. Owner has never lived in the home. Storage shed and a ramp into the home complete the package. 55+ gated Community, club house and pickle ball courts. 2 Dog parks See clubhouse for list of activities
-
2023-11-16$50,000 Active 736-char remark
Show marketing remark (736 chars)
Steal of the Day! This home is priced well below market value. Seller wants to move this 1984 Cavco quickly. Roof and HVAC replaced in 2017, Washer/Dryer 2020, water lines, hot water heater and dishwasher replaced in 2021. This is a 2 bedroom 2 bath home, both baths haves step in showers. Dual pane windows, carpet has been cleaned but may need replacing. This is a very nice home with a screened in front deck, large living room and semi open floor plan. Don't let the price stop you from seeing this one. It is a gem. Owner has never lived in the home. Storage shed and a ramp into the home complete the package. 55+ gated Community, club house and pickle ball courts. 2 Dog parks See clubhouse for list of activities
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,750
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,425
- − Property taxes
- −$1,185
- − Insurance
- −$395
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,740
- − Management
- −$1,740
- − Depreciation
- −$2,298
- Taxable income
- $9,966
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,392
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,239/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This home is in average condition with moderate repairs needed. It has a good roof and HVAC, but the kitchen and bathrooms need updates. The home is located in a gated community with a pool and amenities, which could be a selling point.
Repairs flagged
- Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
- Moderate kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
- Moderate bathroom fixtures — standard and in need of updating
Value-add opportunities
- Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
- Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers
- Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
- Both replace carpeting — new flooring would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
- Both repair siding — repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal and structural integrity
Renovation cost estimate screening
| Repair item | Severity | Est. cost |
|---|---|---|
| kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement | Moderate | $3,000–15,000 |
| kitchen appliances · outdated and in need of replacement | Moderate | $3,000–15,000 |
| bathroom fixtures · standard and in need of updating | Moderate | $3,000–15,000 |
| Total estimated repair cost · 3 items | $9,000–45,000 |
Value-add ROI direction
- Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
- Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers ↑
- Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both replace carpeting — new flooring would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both repair siding — repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Dysart Unified District (4243)
- NCES district ID
- 0402690
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,033
- Composite
- 32.76/100
- National rank
- #5634
- State rank
- #73 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Surprise
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #19
- US rank
- #4616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Surprise, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 160,031
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,765
- Household income
- $56,444
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 510.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Guatemala
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.18%
- Current HPI
- 287.1228
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -5.53%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
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| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
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Price history
+58.0% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,000 ARMLS
- 2026-05-08 Listed $99,000 ARMLS
- 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,000 ARMLS
- 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) $45,000 ARMLS
- 2023-11-21 Pending — ARMLS
- 2023-11-16 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…