849 Road 5812 · Dayton, TX 77327

$95,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 2024 Poor condition 10,454 sqft lot $42/sqft · 60% below area $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

Key facts

• Custom build
• Corner lot
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM BUILD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.44%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,383
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -62.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Road 5812	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,992 (-12%)	1mo	$249,990	$125	60
818 Road 5607	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,131 (-6%)	2mo	$199,900	$94	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $35,172
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $101,387
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,906/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-03-30
    price $95,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

15. 2026-02-17
    status Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

16. 2026-02-17
    price $100,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

17. 2026-02-09
    status Pending 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

18. 2026-02-05
    status Pending 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

19. 2025-11-29
    price $80,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

20. 2025-10-07
    historical
21. 2025-10-07
    price $85,000
22. 2025-10-06
    listed $85,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Calling All Investors, Developers, and Builders! Don’t miss this incredible investment opportunity! This 5-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready to be completed, offering a blank canvas for your vision. With the frame, roof, and windows already in place, much of the hard work is done—just bring your finishing touches! Corner lot, this property holds great potential for a profitable flip, rental, or custom build. Whether you're an investor looking to maximize returns or a builder ready to bring this home to life, this is the perfect project for you. Act fast—opportunities like this don’t last long!

23. 2025-08-04
    price $90,000
24. 2025-03-08
    price $100,000
25. 2025-02-16
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,906
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $8,170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,961
• After-tax cash flow: $7,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in an extensive rehab stage, requiring complete exterior and interior finishing to be move-in ready. Significant value can be added through comprehensive renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior walls — Exposed frame with no siding
• Major Roof — Exposed frame with no shingles
• Major Flooring — Exposed frame with no finish
• Major Interior walls — Exposed frame with no finish
• Major Bathrooms — Exposed frame with no fixtures
• Major Kitchen — Exposed frame with no appliances
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed frame with no systems
• Major Landscaping — Bare lot with no landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects structure
• Both Install roof shingles — Protects structure and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install flooring and interior finishes — Enhances living space and protects structure
• Both Install kitchen appliances and bathroom fixtures — Enhances living space and protects structure
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Enhances living space and protects structure
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and protects structure

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior walls · Exposed frame with no siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Exposed frame with no shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed frame with no finish	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed frame with no finish	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · Exposed frame with no fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen · Exposed frame with no appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Exposed frame with no systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Bare lot with no landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects structure ↑
• Both Install roof shingles — Protects structure and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install flooring and interior finishes — Enhances living space and protects structure ↑
• Both Install kitchen appliances and bathroom fixtures — Enhances living space and protects structure ↑
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Enhances living space and protects structure ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and protects structure ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Listed $110,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,906 · +123.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.