448 Medina Ln · Alamo, TX 78516

$450,000

None bd · None ba · 4,000 sqft · MultiFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.25 ac lot $112/sqft · 9% below area Est $496k · 9% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Finance Available. New & Ready to move in or to add as a NEW investment to your portfolio! Excellent & New Investment Fourplex Opportunity with excellent location proximity to expressway, major metropolitan areas and surrounded by new developed subdivisions. This Fourplex offers an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, equipped kitchen(stove, refrigerator,washer,dryer)living, dining room, laundry room, carport parking. This New construction is elegant and at the same time modern with high quality quartz, light fixtures and materials. If this is your first property, you may live in one of them and rent the other 3 units or Add to your investment portfolio this unique property either way is a WIN WIN. Call for more information and drive by to tour your soon to be new investment! Schedule your private tour today. Attention investors-Next to this 4plex there are 2 multiplex lots for sale to become owner of 12 apartments at once. Lots MLS 480969 and MLS 480970

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New construction
• Carport parking

Tags

• EXCELLENT LOCATION PROXIMITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• CARPORT PARKING
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• HIGH QUALITY QUARTZ

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $450k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $101/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,448/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 476% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $396,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $495,947
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 Glory St	0.25mi	—/—	4,200 (+5%)	18mo	$520,000	$124	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-47,117
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,617
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 33.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 86%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$4,448
Total (4 units)			$4,448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1600 Angelina Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	4322	$1,150	$0.27	44d	1	1.00mi
1600 Angelina Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4322	$1,200	$0.28	23d	1	1.00mi
1602 Angelina Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4322	$1,200	$0.28	14d	1	1.00mi
445 E Acacia Ave Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	4266	$1,100	$0.26	23d	1	1.03mi
1607 Angelina Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4322	$1,350	$0.31	14d	1	1.05mi
1805 Angelina Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4148	$1,150	$0.28	23d	1	1.09mi
413 E Acacia Ave Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	4266	$1,025	$0.24	23d	1	1.12mi
308 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4200	$1,250	$0.30	44d	1	1.32mi
209 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	4212	$1,150	$0.27	44d	1	1.35mi
209 Rafael Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	4212	$1,250	$0.30	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $450,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $466,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $466,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $466,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $466,000 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (990 chars)

    Owner Finance Available. New & Ready to move in or to add as a NEW investment to your portfolio! Excellent & New Investment Fourplex Opportunity with excellent location proximity to expressway, major metropolitan areas and surrounded by new developed subdivisions. This Fourplex offers an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, equipped kitchen(stove, refrigerator,washer,dryer)living, dining room, laundry room, carport parking. This New construction is elegant and at the same time modern with high quality quartz, light fixtures and materials. If this is your first property, you may live in one of them and rent the other 3 units or Add to your investment portfolio this unique property either way is a WIN WIN. Call for more information and drive by to tour your soon to be new investment! Schedule your private tour today. Attention investors-Next to this 4plex there are 2 multiplex lots for sale to become owner of 12 apartments at once. Lots MLS 480969 and MLS 480970

17. 2026-01-13
    listed $475,000 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (990 chars)

    Owner Finance Available. New & Ready to move in or to add as a NEW investment to your portfolio! Excellent & New Investment Fourplex Opportunity with excellent location proximity to expressway, major metropolitan areas and surrounded by new developed subdivisions. This Fourplex offers an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, equipped kitchen(stove, refrigerator,washer,dryer)living, dining room, laundry room, carport parking. This New construction is elegant and at the same time modern with high quality quartz, light fixtures and materials. If this is your first property, you may live in one of them and rent the other 3 units or Add to your investment portfolio this unique property either way is a WIN WIN. Call for more information and drive by to tour your soon to be new investment! Schedule your private tour today. Attention investors-Next to this 4plex there are 2 multiplex lots for sale to become owner of 12 apartments at once. Lots MLS 480969 and MLS 480970

18. 2025-11-19
    price $475,000
19. 2025-09-15
    listed $479,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,270
• − Management: −$4,270
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $5,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This fourplex is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a great location. It is ready to move in or to add as a new investment to your portfolio.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the property more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Add a small garden or planter box near the front door — Improves curb appeal and adds a touch of greenery to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the property more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add a small garden or planter box near the front door — Improves curb appeal and adds a touch of greenery to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $466,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $475,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $475,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $479,000 MCALLENMLS