21786 Adriatic Ln · Connerton, FL 34637

$315,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · Townhouse public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 2,640 sqft lot Est $309k · at est. $244/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to beautiful Connerton Village! This like-new 3-bedroom, 2 1/2 -bathroom townhouse with a 1-car garage at Connerton Village offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Meticulously maintained and truly move-in ready, this home shows like a model home with modern finishes, an open and inviting layout, and designer touches throughout. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly into the well-appointed kitchen, creating the ideal space for entertaining or everyday living. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a private bath and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy low-ma

Key facts

• $244 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $719; Total annual fees: $2,937.96; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA required; monthly fee $244.83; HOA covers pool, maintenance (structure & grounds), sewer and water; Association approval required; Community amenities: clubhouse, dog park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts, deed restrictions; Pets allowed (max ~200 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Faces north; MPUD zoning; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 21786
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,896 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,993
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21861 Adriatic Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	2mo	$315,000	$197	92
21857 Adriatic Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	13mo	$305,000	$191	84
9124 Gallantree Pl	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$304,900	$190	45
9118 Gallantree Pl	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$309,000	$193	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,228
• Equity at exit: $67,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-58,217
• Equity at exit: $64,719

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,527/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$244
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $250,896

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-274	+0% $-363	+5% $-452	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-567	-5% $-465	+0% $-363	+5% $-261	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-204	-0.5pp $-283	base $-363	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	16d	1	0.05mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	0.07mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	1d	1	0.07mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	26d	1	0.08mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	26d	1	0.11mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	14d	1	0.12mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	14d	1	0.94mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	26d	1	1.01mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	19d	1	1.27mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	6d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $244 · $2,928/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,527 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,527 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,527
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,481
• − Management: −$2,481
• − HOA: −$2,928
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,350
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhouse in Connerton Village is in good condition with modern finishes and an inviting layout. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value.
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+118.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,527 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.