2831 Benford Ln · Youngstown, OH 44505

$95,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2004 6,838 sqft lot Est $113k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming ranch home is a well kept 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, 1 car attached garage. The home was built in 2004 and it features central air, a generous size living room, eat in kitchen and spacious bedrooms with adequate closet space.

Key facts

• 6,838 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $660 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $89,770 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.90%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,378
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2915 Megan Cir	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$73	97
2951 Megan Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	5mo	$100,000	$73	93
2824 Benford Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$73	93
3758 Choice Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	12mo	$115,000	$84	78
3786 Choice Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$84	78
3244 Nelson Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,332 (-2%)	8mo	$110,000	$83	71
3725 Ron Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,560 (+14%)	6mo	$179,999	$115	47
3302 Castalia Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+14%)	4mo	$212,000	$136	46
6458 Poplar Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (-9%)	20mo	$100,000	$80	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,509
• Equity at exit: $14,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $38,297
• Equity at exit: $8,257

Cash invested: $26,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44505

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,081/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $798

Max offer price $95,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $404	+0% $377	+5% $350	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $276	-5% $326	+0% $377	+5% $427	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $401	base $377	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,875
• Closing costs: $2,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2983 Megan Cir Youngstown, OH	4.0	2.0	1366	$1,275	$0.93	14d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Active
3. 2025-12-22
   status Active
4. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-09-15
   historical
6. 2025-09-03
   status Active
7. 2025-08-23
   status Active
8. 2025-08-09
   status Pending
9. 2025-07-25
   listed $95,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,081 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,349
• − Property taxes: −$1,081
• − Insurance: −$478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$2,778
• Taxable income: $3,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $3,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,449
• Household income: $36,480
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.8

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.64%
• Current HPI: 192.3375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-15 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-08-23 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-08-09 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-07-25 Listed $95,500 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,081 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.