16558 Timberwolf Trl · Patton Village, TX 77357

$231,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Luxe owner suite

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community Association; Association fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $231,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $203,680 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,950
• List price: $231,890
• Delta: -17.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+1%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	81
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+1%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	81
16507 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+5%)	1mo	$271,990	$158	75
16514 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+5%)	1mo	$270,990	$158	75
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	74
16895 Buckwood Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+10%)	0mo	$314,990	$176	74
16502 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+8%)	1mo	$273,990	$156	71
16515 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+9%)	1mo	$272,990	$154	69
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-11%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	69
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-13%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	65
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-14%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	64
20938 Canary Wood Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+6%)	1mo	$219,900	$126	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-84,949
• Equity at exit: $42,040

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-138,537
• Equity at exit: $24,378

Cash invested: $78,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,229/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $205,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-434	+0% $-531	+5% $-629	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-612	+0% $-531	+5% $-451	+10% $-371
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-460	base $-531	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,488
• Closing costs: $8,459
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.61mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	7d	57	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $231,890 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,890 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,890 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $231,890 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   remarks 542-char remark
6. 2026-06-04
   days on marketlisting id $231,890 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $231,890 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $231,890 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $231,890 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,890 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-05-19
    price $231,890 535-char remark
12. 2026-05-12
    price $233,390 535-char remark
13. 2026-05-08
    price $229,240 535-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    price $236,240 535-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    price $240,340 535-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    price $244,340 535-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    price $249,040 535-char remark
18. 2026-04-17
    price $253,040 535-char remark
19. 2026-04-14
    price $257,090 535-char remark
20. 2026-04-10
    price $261,140 535-char remark
21. 2026-04-07
    price $265,290 535-char remark
22. 2026-04-02
    listed $269,990 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,794
• − Property taxes: −$4,229
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,202
• Taxable loss: −$11,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,738
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new single-family home in the Timbers Edge masterplan is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Its excellent condition and attractive landscaping make it an ideal investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $231,890 HARMLS