123 Lenoir Ave · Jackson, TN 38301

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,119 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1950 7,500 sqft lot Est $109k · 49% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three parking spaces total; One covered space; One carport space; Gravel parking surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story (single level); City street frontage; 50 x 150 lot dimensions
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing in the back yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Five total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Carpet, linoleum, and wood flooring; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Career Technology Magnet Elementary (math 3% / reading 5%, grade F, #310 of 333 statewide, top 94%, 388 students, 0% FRL); South Side High School (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #257 of 332 statewide, top 78%, 810 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,676/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.70%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,543
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Peabody Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,119 (0%)	11mo	$170,000	$152	80
1112 E Chester St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-1%)	16mo	$39,900	$36	76
201 N Hays Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,190 (+6%)	8mo	$56,000	$47	60
202 S Lindsey St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+11%)	6mo	$120,000	$97	57
241 S Lindsey St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+13%)	0mo	$125,000	$99	55
33 Holland	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-11%)	7mo	$115,000	$115	55
214 Peabody Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (-13%)	14mo	$53,500	$55	54
47 Regency Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,156 (+3%)	15mo	$100,000	$87	54
60 Altamont Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+9%)	4mo	$55,000	$45	48
43 Carnell St	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,217 (+9%)	2mo	$74,000	$61	47
344 Phillips St	0.68mi	3/1.0	963 (-14%)	1mo	$129,900	$135	44
163 Cartmell St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+14%)	9mo	$215,000	$168	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $57,555
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $147,045
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $344/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,015	-5% $1,000	+0% $984	+5% $969	+10% $953
Rent	-10% $852	-5% $918	+0% $984	+5% $1,051	+10% $1,117
Rate	-1.0pp $1,012	-0.5pp $998	base $984	+0.5pp $970	+1.0pp $956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Jackson Walk Plz Jackson, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1082	$2,600	$2.40	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $55,000 Pending 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $55,000
18. 2026-03-24
    price $59,000
19. 2026-02-09
    status Active
20. 2026-01-19
    historical
21. 2025-11-25
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-26
    price $60,000
23. 2025-07-09
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $344 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $390 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$344
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $11,598
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,784
• After-tax cash flow: $9,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $55,000 CWTAR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $59,000 CWTAR
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — CWTAR
• 2026-01-19 Delisted — CWTAR
• 2025-11-25 Pending — CWTAR
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $60,000 CWTAR
• 2025-07-09 Listed $65,000 CWTAR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $344 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.