2 Covington St. St · Fort Covington, NY 12937

$83,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1900 0.35 ac lot $61/sqft · 36% below area Est $130k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($855/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Salmon River Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #545 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($577 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $84k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.76%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,123
• List price: $83,500
• Delta: -35.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Pike St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+5%)	15mo	$72,340	$51	59
41 Center St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-6%)	22mo	$100,000	$78	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $48,427
• Equity at exit: $73,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $138,991
• Equity at exit: $156,122

Cash invested: $23,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12937

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$438
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $83,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,875
• Closing costs: $2,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,500 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,500 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,500 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,500 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,500 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $83,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,500 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,500 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,500 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $83,500 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $83,500 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,500 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,500 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,500 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Active
16. 2026-03-03
    historical
17. 2026-02-28
    status Pending
18. 2025-11-18
    listed $83,500 Active
19. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $30,000
20. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone A · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$4,182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$2,429
• Taxable loss: −$274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$66
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salmon River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625500
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,710
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #5770
• State rank: #545 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Covington, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Native American 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.69%
• Current HPI: 273.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-03-03 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-02-28 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $83,500 ACVMLS
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,117 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.