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11 Shady Ln
B Composite 73.63
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.6/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.8/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

$79,000

11 Shady Ln · Memphis, FL 34221
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 266 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition 2,919 sqft lot $103/sqft · 19% below area Est $98k · 19% under $200/mo HOA · 14% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

PRICE JUST REDUCED TO SELL IMMEDIATELY * * BEST VALUE IN PALMETTO UNDER 100K, YOU OWN A SHARE OF THE LAND VALUE IN THE COMMUNITY, AS THIS IS A CO-OP * * SELLER MOTIVATED * * QUIET AND SERENE LOCATION IN SOUGHT-AFTER LEISURE LAKES with LOW HOA FEES * * 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH with an EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM PLAN * * RECENTLY UPDATED WITH MODERN TOUCHES AND FRESH INTERIOR/EXTERIOR PAINT * * COMMUNITY POOL, GATED ENTRANCE AND FANTASTIC VIEWS AMONG THE SOARING TREES & GORGEOUS LAKE * * Look no further than the best value in Palmetto, listed under 100k with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths while sitting in a gorgeous location inside Leisure Lakes.

Key facts

  • Fantastic views
  • Community pool
  • Gorgeous lake

Tags

COMMUNITY POOLGATED ENTRANCEFANTASTIC VIEWSGORGEOUS LAKENEWER WOOD LOOKING FLOORINGSCREENED PATIO AREA

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
  • Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Palm View K-8 School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 653 students, 77% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5543% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.78%
Cap rate
11.79%
Cash-on-cash
19.64%
DSCR
1.87
GRM
4.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$98,000
List price
$79,000
Delta
-19.39%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
7 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2900 8th Ave W #23 0.10mi 2/1.5 893 (+16%) 1mo $124,000 $139 68
49 Leisure Way 0.07mi 1/1.5 (-1) 620 (-19%) 5mo $75,000 $121 60
111 Lakeview Dr 0.10mi 3/2.0 (+1) 890 (+16%) 8mo $71,000 $80 59
145 Shady Ln 0.13mi 2/1.0 624 (-19%) 9mo $118,000 $189 57
339 Peace Mnr 0.23mi 1/1.0 (-1) 624 (-19%) 10mo $73,000 $117 47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
7.6%
Equity multiple
1.28×
Total profit
$6,292
Equity at exit
$11,779
10-year hold
IRR
13.5%
Equity multiple
1.90×
Total profit
$19,873
Equity at exit
$6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
4 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply
12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$97,950 ($121/sqft)
Median days on market
118 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
+5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

Rents YoY
-3.0%
Active inventory
1580
Price-to-rent
4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,403 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$414
Tax est. 1.5%
$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
Insurance
$33
HOA
$200
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$295
Net cashflow
$362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944
Max offer price $79,000
Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $417 -5% $389 +0% $362 +5% $335 +10% $307
Rent -10% $251 -5% $307 +0% $362 +5% $417 +10% $473
Rate -1.0pp $402 -0.5pp $382 base $362 +0.5pp $342 +1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$19,750
Closing costs
$2,370
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 980 $1,800 $1.84 88d 1 0.47mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.0 962 $1,895 $1.97 119d 1 0.73mi
3919 3rd Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,950 $1.95 88d 1 0.73mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,800 $1.70 106d 1 0.85mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL 2.0–3.0 1.0 800 $1,495 $1.87 119d 1 0.93mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,895 $1.69 2d 1 0.95mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,795 $1.60 9d 1 0.95mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,795 $1.60 119d 1 0.95mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 900 $2,100 $2.33 119d 1 1.03mi
4620 3rd Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.5 938 $2,300 $2.45 63d 1 1.04mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,550 $1.55 88d 1 1.05mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,550 $1.55 98d 1 1.05mi
516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 612 $1,350 $2.21 111d 1 1.17mi
518 12th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 612 $1,350 $2.21 111d 1 1.17mi
518 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 612 $1,350 $2.21 0d 1 1.17mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 1000 $1,800 $1.80 119d 1 1.19mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL 1.0 2.0 1106 $3,200 $2.89 119d 1 1.20mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.0 1072 $1,800 $1.68 97d 1 1.27mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $1,340 $1.58 97d 1 1.31mi
522 10th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 895 $1,299 $1.45 5d 1 1.35mi
522 10th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $1,299 $1.53 9d 1 1.35mi
1200 12th Ave W Apt B Palmetto, FL 1.0 1.0 585 $1,100 $1.88 63d 1 1.36mi
1200 12th Ave W Apt B Palmetto, FL 1.0 1.0 585 $1,100 $1.88 71d 1 1.36mi
1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.0 916 $1,950 $2.13 119d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Partially furnishedAssociation fees total $2,400 annually
Financial info
Lease restrictions applyAnnual taxes reported
HOA & community
Leisure Lake Co-Op community with required association approvalMonthly association fee of $200 (includes pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water)Association recreation ownedPool on siteDeed restrictionsGolf carts allowedSenior communityPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

Parking
Tandem carport2-car carport
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/high-speed internet availableCable connected
Home design
Residential mobile home (single wide)One storySouth-facingEntry level: One
Construction
Vinyl sidingRoof overCrawlspace foundationBuilding area approximately 1,408 sq ftLiving area approximately 768 sq ftLot about 0.07 acres
Exterior features
StorageAsphalt road access

Interior

Kitchen
RangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanSplit bedroom layout5 total rooms
Laundry & utility
Outdoor laundry area

HOA detail $200/mo · $2,400/yr

Likely covers
poolsecurity

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $79,000 Active 266 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $79,000 Active 265 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $79,000 Active 264 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $79,000 Active 263 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $79,000 Active 262 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $79,000 Active 261 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $79,000 Active 260 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $79,000 Active 259 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $79,000 Active 258 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $79,000 Active 257 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $79,000 Active 256 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $79,000 Active 255 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 249 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 248 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 247 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 244 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 243 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $79,000 Active 242 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $79,000 Active 241 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $79,000 Active 240 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $79,000 Active 239 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $79,000 Active 238 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $79,000 Active 237 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $79,000 Active 236 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $79,000 Active 235 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $79,000 Active 234 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $79,000 Active 233 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $79,000 Active 232 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $79,000 Active 231 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $79,000 Active 230 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $79,000 Active 229 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $79,000 Active 228 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,000 Active 227 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,000 Active 226 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,000 Active 225 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,000 Active 224 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,000 Active 223 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,000 Active 222 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 221 DOM
  40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 220 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,000 Active 219 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 218 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 217 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 216 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 213 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 211 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $79,000 Active 210 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $79,000 Active 206 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,000 Active 205 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,000 Active 204 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$16,831
− Mortgage interest
−$4,425
− Property taxes
−$1,185
− Insurance
−$395
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,346
− Management
−$1,346
− HOA
−$2,400
− Depreciation
−$2,298
Taxable income
$3,434
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$824
After-tax cash flow
$3,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,840–$11,520 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
  • Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality
  • Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and energy efficiency

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Palmetto Elementary School F FL #1,345/2,144 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

Score
63/100
State rank
#745
US rank
#16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Memphis, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
56,208
Household income
$77,712
Rent vs Own
17.1% rent · 82.9% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-98.2% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-19 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-12-30 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…