11 Shady Ln · Memphis, FL
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.22%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 29 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +1.8/5.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.4
$79,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
PRICE JUST REDUCED TO SELL IMMEDIATELY * * BEST VALUE IN PALMETTO UNDER 100K, YOU OWN A SHARE OF THE LAND VALUE IN THE COMMUNITY, AS THIS IS A CO-OP * * SELLER MOTIVATED * * QUIET AND SERENE LOCATION IN SOUGHT-AFTER LEISURE LAKES with LOW HOA FEES * * 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH with an EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM PLAN * * RECENTLY UPDATED WITH MODERN TOUCHES AND FRESH INTERIOR/EXTERIOR PAINT * * COMMUNITY POOL, GATED ENTRANCE AND FANTASTIC VIEWS AMONG THE SOARING TREES & GORGEOUS LAKE * * Look no further than the best value in Palmetto, listed under 100k with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths while sitting in a gorgeous location inside Leisure Lakes.
Key facts
- Fantastic views
- Community pool
- Gorgeous lake
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
- Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Palm View K-8 School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 653 students, 77% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5543% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.78% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.64%
- DSCR
- 1.87
- GRM
- 4.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $98,000
- List price
- $79,000
- Delta
- -19.39%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 7 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2900 8th Ave W #23 | 0.10mi | 2/1.5 | 893 (+16%) | 1mo | $124,000 | $139 | 68 |
| 49 Leisure Way | 0.07mi | 1/1.5 (-1) | 620 (-19%) | 5mo | $75,000 | $121 | 60 |
| 111 Lakeview Dr | 0.10mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 890 (+16%) | 8mo | $71,000 | $80 | 59 |
| 145 Shady Ln | 0.13mi | 2/1.0 | 624 (-19%) | 9mo | $118,000 | $189 | 57 |
| 339 Peace Mnr | 0.23mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 624 (-19%) | 10mo | $73,000 | $117 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 7.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.28×
- Total profit
- $6,292
- Equity at exit
- $11,779
- IRR
- 13.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.90×
- Total profit
- $19,873
- Equity at exit
- $6,830
Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 4 active · 1 under contract
- Months of supply
- 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $97,950 ($121/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 118 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34221
- Rents YoY
- -3.0%
- Active inventory
- 1580
- Price-to-rent
- 4.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,403 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$414
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
- Insurance
- −$33
- HOA
- −$200
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$295
- Net cashflow
- $362
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $417 | -5% $389 | +0% $362 | +5% $335 | +10% $307 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $251 | -5% $307 | +0% $362 | +5% $417 | +10% $473 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $402 | -0.5pp $382 | base $362 | +0.5pp $342 | +1.0pp $321 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $19,750
- Closing costs
- $2,370
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 24 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 307 27th St E Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 980 | $1,800 | $1.84 | 88d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 962 | $1,895 | $1.97 | 119d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 3919 3rd Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,950 | $1.95 | 88d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1060 | $1,800 | $1.70 | 106d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 900 21st St E Palmetto, FL | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,495 | $1.87 | 119d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $1,895 | $1.69 | 2d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $1,795 | $1.60 | 9d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $1,795 | $1.60 | 119d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 515 45th St E Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $2,100 | $2.33 | 119d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 4620 3rd Ave W Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 938 | $2,300 | $2.45 | 63d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 709 45th St E Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,550 | $1.55 | 88d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 709 45th St E Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,550 | $1.55 | 98d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 612 | $1,350 | $2.21 | 111d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 518 12th St W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 612 | $1,350 | $2.21 | 111d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 518 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 612 | $1,350 | $2.21 | 0d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,800 | $1.80 | 119d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1106 | $3,200 | $2.89 | 119d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1072 | $1,800 | $1.68 | 97d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 501 11th St W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,340 | $1.58 | 97d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 522 10th St W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 895 | $1,299 | $1.45 | 5d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 522 10th St W Palmetto, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,299 | $1.53 | 9d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 1200 12th Ave W Apt B Palmetto, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 585 | $1,100 | $1.88 | 63d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 1200 12th Ave W Apt B Palmetto, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 585 | $1,100 | $1.88 | 71d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 916 | $1,950 | $2.13 | 119d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Partially furnishedAssociation fees total $2,400 annually
- Financial info
- Lease restrictions applyAnnual taxes reported
- HOA & community
- Leisure Lake Co-Op community with required association approvalMonthly association fee of $200 (includes pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water)Association recreation ownedPool on siteDeed restrictionsGolf carts allowedSenior communityPets allowed with breed restrictions
Exterior
- Parking
- Tandem carport2-car carport
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/high-speed internet availableCable connected
- Home design
- Residential mobile home (single wide)One storySouth-facingEntry level: One
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingRoof overCrawlspace foundationBuilding area approximately 1,408 sq ftLiving area approximately 768 sq ftLot about 0.07 acres
- Exterior features
- StorageAsphalt road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- RangeRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Open floorplanSplit bedroom layout5 total rooms
- Laundry & utility
- Outdoor laundry area
HOA detail $200/mo · $2,400/yr
- Likely covers
- poolsecurity
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-22days on market $79,000 Active 266 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $79,000 Active 265 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $79,000 Active 264 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $79,000 Active 263 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $79,000 Active 262 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $79,000 Active 261 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $79,000 Active 260 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $79,000 Active 259 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $79,000 Active 258 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $79,000 Active 257 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $79,000 Active 256 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $79,000 Active 255 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $79,000 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $79,000 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $79,000 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $79,000 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $79,000 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $79,000 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $79,000 Active 241 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $79,000 Active 240 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $79,000 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $79,000 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $79,000 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $79,000 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $79,000 Active 235 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $79,000 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $79,000 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $79,000 Active 232 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $79,000 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $79,000 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $79,000 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $79,000 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $79,000 Active 227 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $79,000 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $79,000 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $79,000 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $79,000 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $79,000 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $79,000 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $79,000 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $79,000 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $79,000 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $79,000 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $79,000 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $79,000 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $79,000 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $79,000 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $79,000 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $79,000 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $79,000 Active 204 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $16,831
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,425
- − Property taxes
- −$1,185
- − Insurance
- −$395
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,346
- − Management
- −$1,346
- − HOA
- −$2,400
- − Depreciation
- −$2,298
- Taxable income
- $3,434
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$824
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,521/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.
Value-add opportunities
- Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
- Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality ↑
- Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manatee
- NCES district ID
- 1201230
- Math proficiency
- 54% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,607
- Composite
- 44.43/100
- National rank
- #2806
- State rank
- #26 of 73 in FL
Livability — Memphis
- Score
- 63/100
- State rank
- #745
- US rank
- #16072
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Memphis, FL
- County
- Manatee County · 447,342 people
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 56,208
- Household income
- $77,712
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 447,342 people
- By 2030
- 488,911 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 567,934 · +27.0%
- By 2050
- 637,995 · +42.6%
- By 2075
- 781,970 · +74.8%
- By 2100
- 848,272 · +89.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Manatee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -383.53%
- Current HPI
- 302.1458
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.98%
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-98.2% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-19 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
- 2025-12-30 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…