11 Shady Ln · Memphis, FL 34221

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 170 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 2,919 sqft lot $200/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE JUST REDUCED TO SELL IMMEDIATELY * * BEST VALUE IN PALMETTO UNDER 100K, YOU OWN A SHARE OF THE LAND VALUE IN THE COMMUNITY, AS THIS IS A CO-OP * * SELLER MOTIVATED * * QUIET AND SERENE LOCATION IN SOUGHT-AFTER LEISURE LAKES with LOW HOA FEES * * 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH with an EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM PLAN * * RECENTLY UPDATED WITH MODERN TOUCHES AND FRESH INTERIOR/EXTERIOR PAINT * * COMMUNITY POOL, GATED ENTRANCE AND FANTASTIC VIEWS AMONG THE SOARING TREES & GORGEOUS LAKE * * Look no further than the best value in Palmetto, listed under 100k with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths while sitting in a gorgeous location inside Leisure Lakes. You will love the newer wood looking

Key facts

• Fantastic views
• Community pool
• Gorgeous lake

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• GATED ENTRANCE
• FANTASTIC VIEWS
• GORGEOUS LAKE
• NEWER WOOD LOOKING FLOORING
• SCREENED PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Association fees total $2,400 annually
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Annual taxes reported
• HOA & community: Leisure Lake Co-Op community with required association approval; Monthly association fee of $200 (includes pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association recreation owned; Pool on site; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem carport; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; South-facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Building area approximately 1,408 sq ft; Living area approximately 768 sq ft; Lot about 0.07 acres
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5543% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.49%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $31,567
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $70,422
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $838	-5% $811	+0% $783	+5% $756	+10% $729
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $707	+0% $783	+5% $860	+10% $936
Rate	-1.0pp $823	-0.5pp $803	base $783	+0.5pp $763	+1.0pp $742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	24d	1	0.47mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	24d	1	0.73mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	11d	1	0.85mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	24d	1	0.93mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	24d	1	0.94mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	24d	1	0.95mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	24d	1	0.95mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	24d	1	1.03mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	1.05mi
516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	16d	1	1.17mi
518 12th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	16d	1	1.17mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	1.19mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL	1.0	2.0	1106	$3,200	$2.89	24d	1	1.20mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	2d	1	1.27mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	2d	1	1.31mi
1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	916	$1,950	$2.13	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $1,400
16. 2025-12-30
    listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $8,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $7,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality
• Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality ↑
• Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid