1316 Blue Marlin Blvd · Holiday, FL 34691

$450,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2007 9,000 sqft lot Est $670k · 33% under $176/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your turnkey coastal retreat in the highly desirable Gulfwinds community, where homes rarely become available and the Florida lifestyle takes center stage. This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers over 2,600 square feet of living space with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, and a functional split-bedroom floorplan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Located in an X flood zone where flood insurance is typically not required, this move-in ready home combines peace of mind with comfort and convenience. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living area, solid wood cabinetry, solid surface countertops, walk-in closets, and a spacious kitchen that flows seamlessl

Key facts

• Gulfwinds community
• Solid wood cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• GULFWINDS COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned MPUD
• Financial info: Monthly HOA amount $176; Total annual fees $2,112
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Townsend Tarapani), $176 monthly; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Northwest facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 1 story
• Exterior features: Dog run; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closets; Shutters on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $408k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,079/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1031% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $407,884 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $670,052
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 Rumar Ln	0.40mi	4/4.0	2,264 (-14%)	12mo	$575,000	$254	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-85,536
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-100,701
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$640 /mo · $7,677/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$857
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,257

Max offer price $425,117

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2837 Blossom Lake Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	3.0	1991	$3,400	$1.71	11d	1	0.68mi
1445 Riverside Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	4.0	3.5	2736	$9,000	$3.29	3d	1	1.01mi
1438 N River Cir Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1890	$3,500	$1.85	2d	1	1.07mi
1334 Belcher Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	2d	1	1.21mi
2620 Wood Pointe Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	3.0	2673	$2,991	$1.12	5d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $176 · $2,112/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,677 · $640/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,677 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$7,677
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,916
• − Management: −$3,916
• − HOA: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,213
• After-tax cash flow: $523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,677 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.