21023 Western Valley Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$209,875

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1982 7,200 sqft lot $164/sqft · 8% below area Est $228k · 8% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3/2/2 single-family home in Katy's Settler's Village zoned to Cy-Fair ISD is ready to make it your own. Large living room with a brick fireplace and vaulted ceilings. Magnificent laminate looking tiles in living area. Formal dining room has a patio slider that leads out to a fantastic covered patio with a stamped concrete floor. The kitchen is light and bright with a large window above the sink and a breakfast nook. Down the main hallway you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms on one side and the primary bedroom that features an en-suite bathroom on the other. All the bedrooms have spacious closets. Good sized backyard with plenty of shade that has a gate leading directly to the community park and amenities behind the home. Your kids can play in the park and you will not need to leave home. Carrier brand whole AC/heating system replaced in Aug 2022 with 10 year warranty. Flooring in living areas replaced with laminate looking tiles. New thermostat and kitchen faucet.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Brick fireplace
• Covered patio

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COVERED PATIO
• STAMPED CONCRETE FLOOR
• LARGE WINDOW
• BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-223/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,282 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,117
• List price: $209,875
• Delta: -8.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21170 Northern Colony Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+7%)	4mo	$225,000	$164	73
20918 Walder Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+3%)	3mo	$219,600	$167	73
21126 Settlers Valley Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	2mo	$204,999	$143	71
6450 New World Dr	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-8%)	2mo	$218,000	$185	70
6463 Liberty Valley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+8%)	10mo	$238,000	$172	69
21055 Southern Colony Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	8mo	$249,900	$175	66
20648 Patriot Park Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	2mo	$224,900	$187	63
6723 Highwind Bend Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-4%)	10mo	$218,400	$177	62
6635 Rusty Ridge Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-6%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	59
6626 Rusty Ridge Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	8mo	$208,000	$171	53
20710 Azelea Field St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+13%)	6mo	$264,900	$183	42
6603 Windy River Ln	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,450 (+13%)	8mo	$219,000	$151	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-25,304
• Equity at exit: $47,946

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,317
• Equity at exit: $48,069

Cash invested: $58,765 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,688/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $206,591

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $41	+0% $-19	+5% $-78	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-98	+0% $-19	+5% $61	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $35	base $-19	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,469
• Closing costs: $6,296
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	0.10mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	25d	1	0.13mi
6402 Wild River Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,091	$1.33	3d	1	0.27mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	23d	1	0.35mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	44d	1	0.42mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	0d	41	0.55mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	44d	1	0.56mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	0d	58	0.59mi
20967 Young Meadows Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,795	$1.43	8d	1	0.61mi
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	4d	1	0.65mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	44d	1	0.67mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SWFS2 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	3d	1	0.67mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	0d	28	0.69mi
21627 Calico Bush Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$3,800	$2.67	17d	1	0.74mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	44d	1	0.74mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	44d	1	0.74mi
6010 Diantha St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,856	$1.27	44d	1	0.87mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	13d	1	0.99mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	20d	1	1.01mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,976	$1.14	0d	1	1.05mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	3d	1	1.08mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	44d	1	1.13mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	13d	21	1.18mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	44d	1	1.21mi
21331 Hartford Hollow Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,500	$0.82	20d	1	1.26mi
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	44d	1	1.27mi
19903 Mountain Dale Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,896	$1.40	0d	1	1.30mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	44d	1	1.30mi
19802 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,745	$1.09	44d	1	1.35mi
19735 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,719	$1.22	3d	1	1.39mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	13d	1	1.41mi
19730 Cozy Cabbin Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,800	$1.17	23d	1	1.42mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	5d	1	1.45mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	44d	1	1.45mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	25d	1	1.45mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	44d	1	1.45mi
5523 Dapplewood Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,825	$1.17	0d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,875 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $209,875 Active 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Beautiful 3/2/2 single-family home in Katy's Settler's Village zoned to Cy-Fair ISD is ready to make it your own. Large living room with a brick fireplace and vaulted ceilings. Magnificent laminate looking tiles in living area. Formal dining room has a patio slider that leads out to a fantastic covered patio with a stamped concrete floor. The kitchen is light and bright with a large window above the sink and a breakfast nook. Down the main hallway you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms on one side and the primary bedroom that features an en-suite bathroom on the other. All the bedrooms have spacious closets. Good sized backyard with plenty of shade that has a gate leading directly to the community park and amenities behind the home. Your kids can play in the park and you will not need to leave home. Carrier brand whole AC/heating system replaced in Aug 2022 with 10 year warranty. Flooring in living areas replaced with laminate looking tiles. New thermostat and kitchen faucet.

3. 2025-10-02
   soldstatus
4. 2025-08-22
   soldstatus
5. 2025-08-12
   historical $1,600
6. 2025-08-03
   price $1,600
7. 2025-07-24
   listed $1,700
8. 2022-05-24
   soldstatus
9. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus Sold 907-char remark

   Show marketing remark (907 chars)

   Don't miss the opportunity to own this fantastic 3/2/2 1,282 single-family starter home in Katy's Settler's Village zoned to Cy-Fair ISD. Large living room with a brick fireplace and vaulted ceilings. Formal dining room has a patio slider that leads out to a fantastic covered patio with a stamped concrete floor. The kitchen is light and bright with a large window above the sink and a small breakfast nook. Down the main hallway you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms on one side and the primary bedroom that features an ensuite bathroom on the other. All the bedrooms have spacious closets. Good sized backyard with plenty of shade that has a gate leading directly to the community park and amenities behind the home. Two-car garage has an automatic garage door opener with keypad. Water heater is from 2019. PEX plumbing. Window treatment throughout. This home is being sold as-is. Sellers will do no repairs.

10. 2022-04-21
    status Pending 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to own this fantastic 3/2/2 1,282 single-family starter home in Katy's Settler's Village zoned to Cy-Fair ISD. Large living room with a brick fireplace and vaulted ceilings. Formal dining room has a patio slider that leads out to a fantastic covered patio with a stamped concrete floor. The kitchen is light and bright with a large window above the sink and a small breakfast nook. Down the main hallway you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms on one side and the primary bedroom that features an ensuite bathroom on the other. All the bedrooms have spacious closets. Good sized backyard with plenty of shade that has a gate leading directly to the community park and amenities behind the home. Two-car garage has an automatic garage door opener with keypad. Water heater is from 2019. PEX plumbing. Window treatment throughout. This home is being sold as-is. Sellers will do no repairs.

11. 2022-04-16
    listed $189,000 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to own this fantastic 3/2/2 1,282 single-family starter home in Katy's Settler's Village zoned to Cy-Fair ISD. Large living room with a brick fireplace and vaulted ceilings. Formal dining room has a patio slider that leads out to a fantastic covered patio with a stamped concrete floor. The kitchen is light and bright with a large window above the sink and a small breakfast nook. Down the main hallway you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms on one side and the primary bedroom that features an ensuite bathroom on the other. All the bedrooms have spacious closets. Good sized backyard with plenty of shade that has a gate leading directly to the community park and amenities behind the home. Two-car garage has an automatic garage door opener with keypad. Water heater is from 2019. PEX plumbing. Window treatment throughout. This home is being sold as-is. Sellers will do no repairs.

12. 1988-01-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,688 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,688 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,756
• − Property taxes: −$4,688
• − Insurance: −$1,049
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,105
• Taxable loss: −$3,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $209,875 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-12 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-16 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,688 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.