230 Central Ave Unit 1-C · Lawrence, NY 11559

$310,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1942 Fair condition ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable and convenient living in the heart of Lawrence with this spacious one-bedroom apartment, ideally situated on the first floor of a well-maintained elevator building. Residents enjoy the ease of an on-site laundry facility and assigned indoor parking available for $85 per month. Step inside to a welcoming entry foyer that leads to a thoughtfully designed layout featuring a kitchen and an expansive step-down living and dining area—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The oversized bedroom provides exceptional storage with three closets, along with a ceiling fan and air conditioner for year-round comfort. The full bathroom is designed for convenience and style, featu

Key facts

• Three closets
• Ceiling fan
• Entry foyer

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITY
• ASSIGNED INDOOR PARKING
• ENTRY FOYER
• THREE CLOSETS
• CEILING FAN

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $310k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-614 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Early Childhood Center At #4 School (145 students, 94% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $130,226
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $415,207
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11559

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$723
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $221,176

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-507	+0% $-614	+5% $-721	+10% $-828
Rent	-10% $-839	-5% $-726	+0% $-614	+5% $-501	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-458	-0.5pp $-535	base $-614	+0.5pp $-694	+1.0pp $-776

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Chestnut St Unit A-21 Cedarhurst, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,850	$4.07	45d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
17. 2026-02-10
    price $250,000
18. 2025-12-19
    price $262,999
19. 2025-12-18
    price $263,999
20. 2025-12-12
    price $264,000
21. 2025-12-03
    price $264,999
22. 2025-11-18
    price $265,999
23. 2025-10-27
    price $266,999
24. 2025-10-23
    price $267,000
25. 2025-10-16
    price $267,900
26. 2025-10-03
    price $268,900
27. 2025-09-19
    price $268,990
28. 2025-09-17
    price $268,993
29. 2025-09-05
    price $268,994
30. 2025-08-18
    price $268,995
31. 2025-08-05
    price $268,996
32. 2025-08-04
    price $268,997
33. 2025-07-30
    price $268,998
34. 2025-07-29
    price $268,999
35. 2025-07-23
    price $269,000
36. 2025-07-22
    price $274,995
37. 2025-07-16
    price $274,998
38. 2025-07-14
    price $274,999
39. 2025-06-26
    price $275,000
40. 2025-06-19
    price $288,997
41. 2025-06-13
    price $288,998
42. 2025-05-19
    price $288,999
43. 2025-04-21
    price $289,000
44. 2025-03-18
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − HOA: −$8,676
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$12,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,007
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrading the exterior and interior paint would significantly enhance its value and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Brick siding — Some discoloration and wear
• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrowth

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Brick siding · Some discoloration and wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some overgrowth	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #981
• US rank: #19168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, NY
• City population: 9,130
• Population (ZIP): 9,130

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Slovak 3% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.24%
• Current HPI: 436.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $262,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $263,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $264,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $264,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $265,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $266,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $267,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $267,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $268,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $268,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $268,993 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $268,994 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $268,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $268,996 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $268,997 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $268,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $268,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $274,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $274,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $274,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $288,997 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $288,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $288,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid