2614 Bayou Dr · Alvin, TX 77515

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot $74/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

Key facts

• Expansive yard
• Open green space
• Classic wood siding

Tags

• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION
• CLASSIC WOOD SIDING
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 921 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.63%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,017
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -58.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,095
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $25,211
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $290	+0% $260	+5% $231	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $197	+0% $260	+5% $324	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $282	base $260	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $85,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

15. 2026-04-06
    price $90,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

16. 2026-02-19
    price $95,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

17. 2026-01-12
    listed $100,000 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming 3-bedroom home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint the exterior, and replace the HVAC unit. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor HVAC unit — unit appears functional but may need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing these areas will attract more buyers and renters
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace HVAC unit — a clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC unit · unit appears functional but may need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$9,500–48,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing these areas will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace HVAC unit — a clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 785.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $100,000 HARMLS