2614 Bayou Dr · Angleton, TX 77515

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot $61/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled near the bayou, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and open green space. Elevated construction and classic wood siding give the property a distinctive character, while abundant natural light fills the interior. The home features a functional layout with three spacious bedrooms, a central living area, and a cozy kitchen, providing a solid foundation for renovation or personalization. Outdoors, the expansive yard offers plenty of room to enjoy nature, garden, or entertain, all while being just moments from the bayou’s scenic surroundings. This property presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking a quiet retreat, investment property, or renovation project in a desirable location close to outdoor recreation, wildlife, and water views.

Key facts

• Expansive yard
• Open green space
• Classic wood siding

Tags

• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION
• CLASSIC WOOD SIDING
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.4% in Angleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 315 students, 82% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 54% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1104 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.65%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,832
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -51.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2527 Bastrop St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-27%)	0mo	$88,000	$106	64
2908 County Road 807	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	27mo	$150,000	$123	52
2803 Bayou Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-11%)	60mo	$235,000	$230	47
12619 Sandpiper Rd	1.44mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+3%)	16mo	$150,000	$127	42
12107 Sandpiper Rd	1.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-5%)	45mo	$193,500	$179	31
12312 Annette Rd Unit CR657	1.41mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+20%)	26mo	$160,000	$117	16
415 Riverside Dr Unit CR458	2.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-16%)	28mo	$279,900	$292	15
12311 Sandpiper/county Road 420	1.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-29%)	55mo	$35,000	$43	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $14,467
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $46,628
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $425	+0% $401	+5% $377	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $335	+0% $401	+5% $466	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $419	base $401	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $70,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $80,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $80,000 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $80,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $80,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $80,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $80,000 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $80,000 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $80,000 Active 189 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 186 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $80,000 Active 185 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $80,000 Active 184 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $80,000 Active 183 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 182 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 181 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $80,000 Active 180 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $80,000 Active 179 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 176 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $80,000 Active 175 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $80,000 Active 174 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 173 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 172 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 171 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 170 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 169 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $80,000 Active 168 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $80,000 Active 167 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $80,000 Active 166 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $80,000 Active 165 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $80,000 Active 163 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $80,000 Active 161 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $80,000 Active 160 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $85,000 Active 157 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $85,000 Active 156 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $85,000 Active 155 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $85,000 Active 154 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $85,000 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $3,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $28,600–$51,480 screening

This charming 3-bedroom home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint the exterior, and replace the HVAC unit. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor HVAC unit — unit appears functional but may need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing these areas will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace HVAC unit — a clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Angleton J H School F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $100,000 HARMLS