15064 Goujon Gates Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$354,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,731 sqft · Land · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 $99/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Melrose II Floor Plan - This new single-story home delivers modern comfort with a low-maintenance design. Down the foyer is an office, perfect for working from home, followed by a spacious open layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Direct access to the covered patio allows for seamless indoor-outdoor living. In a private corner is the owner’s suite with an adjoining bathroom and oversized walk-in closet, while at the front are three secondary bedrooms. A two-car garage completes the home. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: C.I.A. Services; Annual association fee of $1,185

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15 x 16; Bedroom (first floor) — 15 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 15 x 10; Bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanities; Kitchen and family room combined layout; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $354,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,567.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $354k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-655 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $252,542 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.63%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,567
• List price: $354,490
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-109,750
• Equity at exit: $63,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-146,703
• Equity at exit: $36,622

Cash invested: $118,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,221
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $307,778

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,892
• Closing costs: $12,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $354,490 Active 685-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   historical
3. 2026-05-05
   price $354,490
4. 2026-05-01
   price $360,390
5. 2026-04-28
   price $366,190
6. 2026-04-24
   price $371,990
7. 2026-04-22
   price $382,990
8. 2026-04-17
   price $384,140
9. 2026-04-13
   listed $389,990 Active
10. 2026-04-03
    price $389,990
11. 2026-03-31
    historical
12. 2026-03-13
    price $396,740
13. 2026-03-13
    price $396,740
14. 2026-03-06
    listed $389,990 Active
15. 2026-03-06
    price $389,990
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $421,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,487 · $541/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,641/yr (+$387/mo · 251.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,726
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$2,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$12,322
• Taxable loss: −$15,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $354,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $396,740 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $421,990 HARMLS